草稿:遙遠未來的時間線

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暗灰色與紅色的球面代表地球,橘色的圓形物體代表太陽,地球位於太陽右側的黑色背景中
藝術家對於79億年後,也就是太陽進入紅巨星階段後,地球碳化的概念圖。

雖然未來的預測永遠不可能完全準確[1],但如果僅限於廣泛的輪廓,可由現今各種知識領域的理解,預測遙遠未來的事件。這些領域包含了揭示行星恆星形成、相互作用與死亡的天體物理學;揭示物質在最小尺度之性質的粒子物理學;預測生命如何隨時間演化的演化生物學;以及顯示千年以來地球大陸變化的板塊構造論

所有地球太陽系宇宙未來的投射,都必須考慮熱力學第二定律,也就是(做時所損失的能量)會隨時間的推移而增加[2]。恆星最終會耗盡氫氣的供應並燃燒殆盡。行星與恆星之間的緊密接觸,將會使行星受到引力的影響而拋離恆星系統之外;而恆星與銀河系之間的緊密接觸,也會使恆星拋離星系之外[3]

最終,物質自身預計會受到放射性衰變的影響,即使是最穩定的物質也會分解成次原子粒子[4]。目前的資料暗示著宇宙有一個扁平的幾何構造(或非常接近扁平構造),因此在有限的時間過後,不會出現自身塌陷的情形[5],而且在無限的未來可能會發生難以置信的大規模事件,如波茲曼大腦的形成[6]

本條目所列出的時間線,涵括了第11千年開始英语List of millennia[a]直到所能觸及的未來時間中,所發生的事件。其中本條目列出諸多可替換的未來事件,以用來說明尚未解決的問題,例如人類是否會滅絕質子是否會衰變,或是當太陽膨脹成紅巨星時地球是否會存活下來等。

圖例[编辑]

Astronomy and astrophysics 天文學天體物理學
Geology and planetary science 地理學行星科學
Biology 生物學
Particle physics 粒子物理學
Mathematics 數學
Technology and culture 技術文化

未來的地球、太陽系和宇宙[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
Geology and planetary science 1萬 If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the 東南極冰蓋, it will take up to this long to melt completely. 海平面s would rise 3 to 4 s.[7] (One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter term threat of the 西南極冰蓋.)
Astronomy and astrophysics 1萬[b] 紅超巨星心宿二將有可能爆發為超新星,預計可在白天輕易觀察到爆炸情形[8]
Geology and planetary science 2.5萬 The northern Martian polar ice cap could recede as 火星 reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the ~50,000 year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.[9][10]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3.6萬 The small 紅矮星 罗斯248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[11] It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first 南門二 again and then 格利泽445 the nearest stars[11] (see timeline).
Geology and planetary science 5萬 According to Berger and Loutre, the current 間冰期 ends[12] sending the Earth back into a 冰期 of the current 大冰期, regardless of the effects of 全球变暖.

尼亚加拉瀑布 will have eroded away the remaining 32 km to 伊利湖, and ceased to exist.[13]

The many 冰蚀湖s of the 加拿大地盾 will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.[14]

Astronomy and astrophysics 5萬 The length of the day used for astronomical timekeeping reaches about 86,401 SI seconds, due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation. Under the present-day timekeeping system, either a 闰秒 would need to be added to the clock every single day, or else by then, in order to compensate, the length of the day would have had to have been officially lengthened by one SI second.[15]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10萬 The 自行 of stars across the 天球, which is the result of their movement through the 银河系, renders many of the 星座s unrecognisable.[16]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10萬[b] The 特超巨星 star 大犬座VY will likely have exploded in a 極超新星.[17]
Geology and planetary science 10萬[b] Earth will likely have undergone a 超级火山 eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 of 岩漿. For comparison, 伊利湖 is 484 km3.[18]
Biology 10萬 Native North American 蚯蚓s, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide ice sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 m / year.[19] (However, non-native invasive earthworms of North America have already been introduced by humans on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional 生态系统).
Geology and planetary science 10萬+ As one of the long-term effects of global warming, 10% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.[20]
Geology and planetary science 25萬 Lōʻihi, the youngest volcano in the 夏威夷-天皇海山链, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new 火山岛.[21]
Astronomy and astrophysics ~30萬[b] At some point in the next "several" hundred thousand years, the 沃爾夫–拉葉星 WR104 is expected to explode in a 超新星. It has been suggested that it may produce a 伽玛射线暴 that could pose a threat to life on Earth should its poles be aligned 12° or lower towards Earth. The star's axis of rotation has yet to be determined with certainty.[22]
Astronomy and astrophysics 50萬[b] Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming it cannot be averted.[23]
Geology and planetary science 50萬 The rugged terrain of 恶地国家公园 in South Dakota will have eroded away completely.[24]
Geology and planetary science 95萬 巴林杰陨石坑, a large 撞击坑 in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have been eroded away.[25]
Geology and planetary science 100萬[b] Earth will likely have undergone a 超级火山 eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 of magma, an event comparable to the 多峇巨災理論 75,000 years ago.[18]
Astronomy and astrophysics 100萬[b] Highest estimated time until the 紅超巨星 star 參宿四 explodes in a 超新星. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.[26][27]
Astronomy and astrophysics 100萬[b] Desdemona and Cressida, moons of 天王星, will likely have collided.[28]
Astronomy and astrophysics 140萬 The star 葛利斯710 will pass as close as 13,365 AU (0.2 light-years to the Sun) before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the 奥尔特云, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.[29]
Biology 200萬 Time it took the last time for 珊瑚礁 ecosystems to recover from 海洋酸化; a similar time may be necessary for the current human-caused event.[30]
Geology and planetary science 200萬+ The 科羅拉多大峽谷 will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the 科羅拉多河.[31]
Astronomy and astrophysics 270萬 Average orbital half-life of current centaurs, that are unstable because of gravitational interaction of the several 外行星.[32] See predictions for notable centaurs.
Geology and planetary science 1,000萬 The widening East African Rift valley is flooded by the 红海, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of 非洲[33] and the 非洲板块 into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the 索马里板块.
Biology 1,000萬 Estimated time for full recovery of 生物多樣性 after a potential 全新世滅絕事件, if it was on the scale of the five previous major extinction events.[34]

Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many 演化支s gradually evolving into new forms.[35]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1,000萬至1億[b] Cupid and Belinda, moons of 天王星, will likely have collided.[28]
Astronomy and astrophysics 5,000萬 Maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with 火星.[36]
Geology and planetary science 5,000萬 The 加利福尼亚州n coast begins to be 隱沒帶 into the 阿留申海沟 due to its northward movement along the 圣安德烈亚斯断层.[37]

Africa's collision with 歐亞大陸 closes the 地中海盆地 and creates a mountain range similar to the 喜马拉雅山脉.[38]

The 阿巴拉契亚山脉 peaks will largely erode away,[39] weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually increase as regional 谷地s deepen at twice this rate.[40]

Geology and planetary science 50–60 million The Canadian Rockies will erode away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units.[41] (The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.[42])
Geology and planetary science 50–400 million Estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its 化石燃料 reserves.[43]
Geology and planetary science 80 million The Big Island will have become the last of the current 夏威夷群島 to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.[44]
Astronomy and astrophysics 100 million[b] Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming it cannot be averted.[45]
Geology and planetary science 100 million Upper estimate for lifespan of the 土星環 in their current state.[46]
Astronomy and astrophysics 180 million Due to the gradual slowing down of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today.[47]
Mathematics 230 million Prediction of the orbits of the planets is impossible over greater time spans than this, due to the limitations of 李雅普诺夫时间.[48]
Astronomy and astrophysics 240 million From its present position, the 太阳系 completes one full orbit of the 銀心.[49]
Geology and planetary science 250 million All the continents on Earth may fuse into a 超大陸. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, 新盤古大陸, and 終極盤古大陸.[50][51]
Geology and planetary science 400–500 million The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, or Amasia) will likely have rifted apart.[51]
Astronomy and astrophysics 500–600 million[b] Estimated time until a 伽玛射线暴, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's 臭氧层 and potentially trigger a 生物集群灭绝, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the 奧陶紀-志留紀滅絕事件. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.[52]
Astronomy and astrophysics 600 million 潮汐加速 moves the 月球 far enough from Earth that 日食s are no longer possible.[53]
Geology and planetary science 600 million The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases 風化作用 of surface rocks, which traps 二氧化碳 in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing 板块构造论 to slow and eventually stop. Without volcanoes to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.[54] By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of present-day species) will die.[55]
Geology and planetary science 800 million Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.[55] Free oxygen and ozone disappear from the atmosphere. Multicellular life dies out.[56]
Geology and planetary science 1 billion[c] The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[57] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[58][59]
Geology and planetary science 1.3 billion 真核生物 life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only 原核生物 remain.[56]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.5–1.6 billion The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar 適居帶 to move outwards; as 二氧化碳 increases in 火星's atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the 大冰期.[56][60]
Geology and planetary science 2.3 billion The Earth's 外核 freezes, if the 內地核 continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.[61][62] Without its liquid outer core, the 地磁场 shuts down,[63] and charged particles emanating from the 太阳 gradually deplete the atmosphere.[64]
Geology and planetary science 2.8 billion Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~422 K(149 °C;300 °F). At this point, life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.[54][65][d]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3 billion 中位數 point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's 轉軸傾角. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme.[66]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3.3 billion One percent chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's orbit so eccentric as to collide with 金星, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Earth.[67]
Geology and planetary science 3.5–4.5 billion The amount of 水蒸气 in the lower atmosphere increases to 40%. This, combined with the luminosity of the Sun reaching roughly 35–40% more than its present-day value, will result in Earth's atmosphere heating up and the surface temperature skyrocketing to roughly 1,600 K(1,330 °C;2,420 °F), hot enough to melt surface rock.[68][69][70][71] This essentially will make the planet much like how Venus is today.[72]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3.6 billion 海王星's moon Triton falls through the planet's 洛希極限, potentially disintegrating into a 行星环 system similar to Saturn's.[73]
Astronomy and astrophysics 4 billion 中位數 point by which the 仙女座星系 will have collided with the 银河系, which will thereafter merge to form a galaxy dubbed "仙女座星系-银河系的碰撞".[74] The planets of the Solar System are expected to be relatively unaffected by this collision.[75][76][77]
Astronomy and astrophysics 5 billion With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the 主序星 and begins to evolve into a 紅巨星.[78]
Astronomy and astrophysics 7.5 billion Earth and Mars may become 潮汐鎖定 with the expanding subgiant Sun.[60]
Astronomy and astrophysics 7.59 billion The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the tip of its 紅巨星 phase and its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.[78][e] Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's 洛希極限, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.[79]
Astronomy and astrophysics 7.9 billion The Sun reaches the tip of the red-giant branch of the 赫羅圖, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.[80] In the process, Mercury, 金星, very likely Earth, and possibly Mars are destroyed.[78]

During these times, it is possible that 土星's moon Titan could achieve surface temperatures necessary to support life.[81]

Astronomy and astrophysics 8 billion The Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen 白矮星 with about 54.05 percent its present mass.[78][82][83][f] At this point, if somehow the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as other remaining planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today.
Astronomy and astrophysics 22 billion The end of the Universe in the 大撕裂 scenario, assuming a model of 暗能量 with w = −1.5.[84] Observations of 星系团 speeds by the 钱德拉X射线天文台 suggest that the true value of w is ~-0.991, meaning the Big Rip will not occur.[85]
Astronomy and astrophysics 50 billion If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become 潮汐鎖定ed, with each showing only one face to the other.[86][87] Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract 角动量 from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.[88]
Astronomy and astrophysics 100 billion The Universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Milky Way's 本星系群 to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the 可觀測宇宙.[89]
Astronomy and astrophysics 150 billion The 宇宙微波背景 cools from its current temperature of ~2.7 K to 0.3 K, rendering it essentially undetectable with current technology.[90]
Astronomy and astrophysics 450 billion 中位數 point by which the ~47 galaxies[91] of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy.[4]
Astronomy and astrophysics 800 billion Expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the 紅矮星 stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.[92]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1012 (1 trillion) Low estimate for the time until 恆星形成 ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars.[4]

The universe's expansion, assuming a constant 暗能量 density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the 大爆炸 undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of 恆星運動學.[89]

Astronomy and astrophysics 4x1012 (4 trillion) Estimated time until the red dwarf star 比邻星, the closest star to the Sun at a distance of 4.25 光年s, leaves the main sequence and becomes a 白矮星.[93]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.2x1013 (12 trillion) Estimated time until the red dwarf VB 10, as of 2016 the least massive 主序星 star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M, runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a 白矮星.[94][95]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3×1013 (30 trillion) Estimated time for stars (including the 太阳) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.[96]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1014 (100 trillion) High estimate for the time until normal 恆星形成 ends in galaxies.[4] This marks the transition from the 膨胀宇宙的未来 to the 膨胀宇宙的未来; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.[3]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.1–1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion) Time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass 紅矮星s, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).[4] After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (白矮星s, 中子星s, black holes) and 棕矮星s.

Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in what was once the Milky Way. Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.[4]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1015 (1 quadrillion) Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the 太阳系) from their orbits.[4]

By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above 绝对零度.[97]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1019 to 1020
(10–100 quintillion)
Estimated time until 90%–99% of 棕矮星s and stellar remnants (including the 太阳) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes the Milky Way to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.[4][98]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1020 (100 quintillion) Estimated time until the 地球 collides with the 黑矮星 太阳 due to the decay of its orbit via emission of 重力波,[99] if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.[99]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1030 Estimated time until those stars not ejected from galaxies (1%–10%) fall into their galaxies' central 超大質量黑洞s. By this point, with 聯星 having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planets, black holes) will remain in the universe.[4]
Particle physics 2×1036 The estimated time for all 核子 in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2×1033 years).[100][101][g]
Particle physics 3×1043 Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years,[4] assuming that the 大爆炸 was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay.[101][g] By this time, if protons do decay, the 膨胀宇宙的未来, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.[3][4]
Particle physics 1065 Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to 行星, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via 量子穿隧效應. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.[99]
Particle physics 5.8×1068 Estimated time until a 恆星黑洞 with a mass of 3 太阳质量es decays into subatomic particles by the Hawking process.[102]
Particle physics 1.342×1099 Estimated time until the central black hole of S5 0014+81, as of 2015 the most massive known with the mass of 40 billion solar masses, dissipates by the emission of Hawking radiation,[102] assuming zero angular momentum (non-rotating black hole). However, the black hole is currently accreting, so the time it takes to dissipate may be longer than this.
Particle physics 1.7×10106 Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawking process.[102] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters the 膨胀宇宙的未来, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the 热寂.[3][4]
Particle physics 10200 Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they don't via the above process, through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on time scales of 1046 to 10200 years.[3]
Particle physics 101500 Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all 重子 has either fused together to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 (see 鐵星).[99]
Particle physics [h][i] Low estimate for the time until all objects exceeding the 普朗克質量[與來源不符] collapse via 量子穿隧效應 into 黑洞s, assuming no 質子衰變 or virtual black holes.[99] On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars are destroyed by quantum tunnelling events. First iron stars of sufficient mass will collapse via tunnelling into 中子星s. Subsequently, neutron stars and any remaining iron stars collapse via tunnelling into black holes. The subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into sub-atomic particles (a process lasting roughly 10100 years) is on these timescales instantaneous.
Particle physics [b][i] Estimated time for a 玻尔兹曼大脑 to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.[6]
Particle physics [i] High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes,[99] which then (on these timescales) instantaneously evaporate into sub-atomic particles.
Particle physics [i] High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its final energy state, even in the presence of a false vacuum.[6][與來源不符]
Particle physics [b][i] Around this vast timeframe, 量子穿隧效應 in any isolated patch of the vacuum could generate, via inflation, new 大爆炸s giving birth to new universes.[103]

Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is ,[104][105] a number which, when multiplied by , disappears into the rounding error, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and 量子涨落-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the range predicted by 弦理論.[106]

未來的人類[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
technology and culture 10,000 根據法蘭克·德雷克原始的德雷克公式,估計出技術文明最有可能的壽命[107]
Biology 10,000 If 全球化 trends lead to 随机交配, human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as the 有效種群大小 will equal the actual population size.[108] (This does not mean homogeneity, as minority traits will still be preserved, e.g., no disappearing blonde gene, but will rather be evenly distributed worldwide.)
Mathematics 10,000 Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to Brandon Carter's formulation of the controversial 末日论证, which argues that half of the humans who will ever have lived have probably already been born.[109]
technology and culture 20,000 According to the 语言年代学 linguistic model of 莫里斯·斯瓦迪士, future languages should retain just 1 out of 100 "core vocabulary" words on their 斯瓦迪士核心詞列表 compared to that of their current progenitors.[110]
Geology and planetary science 100,000+ Time required to terraform Mars with an -rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.[111]
Technology and culture 1 million Estimated shortest time by which humanity could colonize our Milky Way galaxy and become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% the 光速.[112]
Biology 2 million Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo 异域物种形成.[113] Evolutionary biologist James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated space colonies over this time, the galaxy will host an evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".[114] (This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate 基因治療 technologies.)
Mathematics 7.8 million Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial 末日论证, which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.[115]
technology and culture 5–50 million Shortest time by which the entire galaxy could be colonised by means within reach of current technology.[116]
technology and culture 100 million Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to 法蘭克·德雷克's original formulation of the 德雷克公式.[117]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1 billion Estimated time for an astroengineering project to alter the 地球轨道, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid 重力助推s.[118][119]

太空載具與太空探索[编辑]

目前5艘太空船(航海家一號航海家二號先鋒十號先鋒11號新視野號)正位於離開太陽系並進入星際空間的軌道上。除非這些太空船與部分太空物體碰撞(但機率極低),它們應該會永遠保持運行狀態[120]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
Astronomy and astrophysics 1萬 先鋒十號在3.8光年以內途經巴納德星[121]
Astronomy and astrophysics 25,000 The 阿雷西博信息, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, reaches the distance of its destination, the 球狀星團 M13.[122] This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time it takes the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.[123] Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission.
Astronomy and astrophysics 32,000 先驱者10号 passes within 3 光年s of 罗斯248.[124][125]
Astronomy and astrophysics 40,000 旅行者1号 passes within 1.6 光年s of 格利泽445, a star in the constellation 鹿豹座 also known as 格利泽445.[126]
Astronomy and astrophysics 50,000 The KEO space time capsule, if it is launched, will reenter Earth's atmosphere.[127]
Astronomy and astrophysics 296,000 旅行者2号 passes within 4.3 光年s of 天狼星, the brightest star in the night sky.[126]
Astronomy and astrophysics 800,000–8 million Low estimate of Pioneer 10 plaque lifespan, before the etching is destroyed by poorly-understood interstellar erosion processes.[128]
Astronomy and astrophysics 2 million 先驱者10号 passes near the bright star 畢宿五.[129]
Astronomy and astrophysics 4 million 先驱者11号 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.[129]
Astronomy and astrophysics 8 million The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity, and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.[130]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1 billion Estimated lifespan of the two 旅行者金唱片s, before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.[131]

技術項目[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
technology and culture 10,000 Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the 罗塞塔项目, and the Long Bet Project.[132]

Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc, an ion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at 洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室 and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the 羅塞塔石碑).

Biology 10,000 Projected lifespan of Norway's 斯瓦尔巴全球种子库.[133]
technology and culture 100,000+ Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) 迷你自存倉-style repository in 哈尔施塔特 salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of 炻器.[134]
technology and culture 1 million Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the 特文特大学 in the Netherlands.[135]
technology and culture 1 billion Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle moved as a molecular switch through a 碳纳米管, a technology developed at the 加州大學柏克萊分校.[136]
technology and culture more than 13 billion Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the 南安普敦大学.[137][138]

人類建築[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
Geology and planetary science 50,000 四氟化碳在大氣中的預估壽命,為存在時間最久的溫室氣體[139]
Geology and planetary science 100萬 Current 玻璃 objects in the environment will be decomposed.[140]

Various public monuments composed of hard 花崗岩 will have eroded one meter, in a moderate climate, assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm / 1,000 years, or ~1 inch / 10,000 years).[141]

Without maintenance, the 胡夫金字塔 will erode into unrecognizability.[142]

On the 月球, 尼尔·阿姆斯特朗's "one small step" footprint at 静海基地 will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of 空间风化.[143][144] (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present due to the Moon's almost complete lack of atmosphere.)

Geology and planetary science 720萬 如果拉什莫爾山沒有維護,將會侵蝕至無法識別的地步[145]
Geology and planetary science 1億 Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban 地层" of fossilized great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as building foundations and 共同沟s.[146]

天文事件[编辑]

下列說明第11千年(10,001年)開始出現的極罕見天文事件:

日期/今後幾年 事件
Astronomy and astrophysics 10,663年8月20日 同時發生日全食水星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 11,268年8月25日 同時發生日全食和水星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 11,575年2月28日 同時發生日環食和水星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 13,425年9月17日 水星凌日和金星凌日相繼發生[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 13,727年 地球的歲差將導致織女一成為北極星[148][149][150][151]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.3萬 By this point, halfway through the precessional cycle, Earth's 轉軸傾角 will be reversed, causing 夏季 and 冬季 to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the 北半球, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be even more extreme, as it will be facing towards the Sun at Earth's perihelion and away from the Sun at aphelion.[149]
Astronomy and astrophysics 15,232年4月5日 同時發生日全食和金星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 15,790年4月20日 同時發生日環食和水星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.4-1.7萬 地球的歲差將導致老人星成為南極星英语South Star,但與南天極軸只相差10度以內[152]
Astronomy and astrophysics 20,346年 右樞將成為北極星[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 27,800年 勾陳一將再度成為北極星[154]
Astronomy and astrophysics 2.7萬 地球的軌道離心率將達到最小值,也就是0.00236(目前為0.01671)[155][156]
Astronomy and astrophysics 38,172年10月 A transit of Uranus from Neptune, the rarest of all planetary transits.[157]
Astronomy and astrophysics 69,163年7月26日 同時發生水星凌日和金星凌日[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 70,000年 百武二號彗星 returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its aphelion 3,410 A.U. from the Sun and back.[158]
Astronomy and astrophysics 224,508年3月27至28日 水星凌日與金星凌日先後分別發生[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 571,741年 A simultaneous transit of Venus and the 地球 as seen from Mars[147]
Astronomy and astrophysics 600萬 Comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest period comets known, returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 A.U. (1.05 light-years) from the Sun and back.[159]

曆法預測[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
Astronomy and astrophysics 10,000
The 公历 will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the seasons.[160]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10,874 12,892年6月10日 In the 希伯來曆, due to a gradual drift with regard to the solar year, 逾越節 will fall on the northern summer solstice (it is meant to fall around the spring equinox).[161]
Astronomy and astrophysics 18,856 20,874年 The lunar 伊斯兰历 and the solar 公历 will share the same year number. After this, the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.[162]
Astronomy and astrophysics 25,000
The Tabular Islamic calendar will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Moon's phase.[163]
Astronomy and astrophysics 46,883 48,901年3月1日[j] The 儒略曆 (365.25 days) and 公历 (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.[164]

核能[编辑]

Key.svg 今後幾年 事件
Particle physics 10,000 The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, for nuclear weapons waste, is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through both multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and through 象形符号s.[165] (The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.)
Particle physics 20,000 The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600 km2(1,000 sq mi) area of 乌克兰 and 白俄罗斯 left deserted by the 1986 切尔诺贝利核事故, becomes safe for human life.[166]
Geology and planetary science 30,000 Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based 快中子增殖反应堆 reserves, using known sources, assuming 2009 世界能源消耗量.[167]
Geology and planetary science 60,000 Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based 轻水反应堆 reserves if it is possible to extract all the from seawater, assuming 2009 世界能源消耗量.[167]
Particle physics 211,000 半衰期 of technetium-99, the most important 长寿命裂变产物 in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
Particle physics 250,000 The estimated minimum time at which the spent stored at New Mexico's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be lethal to humans.[168]
Particle physics 15.7 million 半衰期 of iodine-129, the most durable 长寿命裂变产物 in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
Geology and planetary science 60 million Estimated supply lifespan of 聚变能 reserves if it is possible to extract all the from seawater, assuming 1995 世界能源消耗量.[169]
Geology and planetary science 5 billion Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based 快中子增殖反应堆 reserves if it is possible to extract all the from seawater, assuming 1983 世界能源消耗量.[170]
Geology and planetary science 150 billion Estimated supply lifespan of 聚变能 reserves if it is possible to extract all the from seawater, assuming 1995 世界能源消耗量.[169]

參見[编辑]

註解[编辑]

  1. ^ The precise cutoff point is 0:00 on 1 January AD 10,001
  2. ^ 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the present.
  3. ^ Units are 西方的数字命名法
  4. ^ There is a roughly 1 in 100,000 chance that the Earth might be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1 in 3 million chance that it will then be captured by another star. Were this to happen, life, assuming it survived the interstellar journey, could potentially continue for far longer.
  5. ^ This has been a tricky question for quite a while; see the 2001 paper by Rybicki, K. R. and Denis, C. However, according to the latest calculations, this happens with a very high degree of certainty.
  6. ^ Based upon the weighted least-squares best fit on p. 16 of Kalirai et al. with the initial mass equal to a 太阳质量.
  7. ^ 7.0 7.1 Around 264 half-lives. Tyson et al. employ the computation with a different value for half-life.
  8. ^ is 1 followed by 1026 (100 septillion) zeroes.
  9. ^ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers beyond this point are so vast that their digits would remain unchanged regardless of which conventional units they were listed in, be they nanoseconds or star lifespans.
  10. ^ Manually calculated from the fact that the calendars were 10 days apart in 1582 and grew further apart by 3 days every 400 years. 1 March AD 48900 (Julian) and 1 March AD 48901 (Gregorian) are both Tuesday. The Julian day number (a measure used by astronomers) at Greenwich mean midnight (start of day) is 19 581 842.5 for both dates.

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