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草稿:遥远未来的时间线

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一个红黑相间的球体,代表地球,左侧是一个橘色的巨大球体,代表太阳。背景是漆黑的宇宙,上面缀有繁星点点。
艺术想象图,描绘了距今数十亿年后的地球,此时太阳已演变为紅巨星,地球也已碳化

虽然未来会发生的事件充满着变数,但当前的科学技术已可以大致预测、估算到一些会在遥远未来发生的事件。[1][2]这些相关领域有天体物理学(研究行星恒星的形成、互动、湮灭)、粒子物理學(研究物质在极小尺度中的相互作用)、演化生物学(研究生命演化)和板块构造学说(研究陆地板块的漂移)。

所有关于地球太阳系乃至宇宙未来的预测都要考虑到热力学第二定律的影响,该定律强调封闭系统中的,或者说可用于做功的能量的流失,必然随时间推移而逐渐增大。[3]恒星会逐渐耗光内部的燃料并燃烧殆尽。天体相互接近时,受引力影响,行星会从它们所在的恒星系中被剥离出去,恒星系则会被从星系中剥离。[4]

物理学家预测,物质会因放射衰变而逐渐瓦解,就算最为稳定的物质都会衰变为亚原子粒子[5]目前的数据显示宇宙是近乎扁平的,因而在有限的时间内不会坍缩成一点[6]这就意味着未来的时间是无限的,那些几近不可能发生的事件也就有可能发生。[7]

本条目所列出的时间线,涵括了从5千纪开始(即公元4001年以后)直到所能预见到的未来时间中,所发生的事件。鉴于有些问题悬而未决,列表中罗列了不同学说提出的不同预测观点,例如人类是否会灭绝质子是否会衰变,或是当太阳膨胀成红巨星时地球是否会存活下来等。

图例[编辑]

天文学与天体物理学 天文學天体物理学
地质学与行星科学 地质学行星科学
生物学 生物学
粒子物理学 粒子物理學
Technology and culture 人类文明与科学技术

地球、太阳系与宇宙[编辑]

Key.svg 距今年份 事件
Geology and planetary science 10,000 如果在接下来的几个世纪内威尔克斯冰下平原的“冰塞”机制融化崩裂,東南極冰蓋的大量冰体将开始融化并逐渐注入海中。这些冰会在10,000年内完全消融,导致全球海平面上升3-4米。[8]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10,000[note 1] 当前处于紅超巨星阶段的心宿二很可能已爆发成为超新星,从地球上看其光芒在白天依旧可见。[9]
Astronomy and astrophysics 13,000 地球的进动周期过半,轉軸傾角翻转,导致夏季冬季出现在地球公转轨道与目前相反的位置上。地球北半球原本就因为陆地面积大而有着更为分明的季节,而夏季、冬季翻转将导致北半球在近日点处受太阳直射,使得北半球气候更加极端。[10]
Geology and planetary science 15,000 撒哈拉泵理论认为,地轴进动会导致北非降雨带英语North African Monsoon北移,将撒哈拉沙漠变成热带气候。距今5,000至10,000年前,撒哈拉沙漠也曾有过一段多雨期英语Neolithic Subpluvial[11][12]
Geology and planetary science 17,000[note 1] 会威胁到文明发展的超级火山很可能已经喷发,将1×1012吨的火山碎屑岩抛洒到大气层中。[13][14]
Geology and planetary science 25,000 米蘭科維奇循環影响,火星北半球升温,达到其约5万年的近日点进动英语Apsidal precession周期的最高温度,导致火星的北极冠消退。[15][16]
Astronomy and astrophysics 36,000 小型紅矮星罗斯248距离地球不到3.024光年,成为距离太阳最近的恒星。[17]8000年后,罗斯248再度远离太阳系,南門二会再度变为距离太阳最近的恒星,之后格利泽445接替之。[17](详见鄰近恆星列表
Geology and planetary science 50,000 安德烈·贝格英语André Berger和玛丽-法兰丝·劳特(Marie-France Loutre)2002年发表的文献中指出,不论人类活动带来的全球变暖影响几何,当前的間冰期都会结束,地球会重返冰期[18]不过,2016年的新研究不同意这一观点,认为当前人类造成的全球变暖会导致冰期推迟5万年,相当于直接跳过了这段冰期。[19]

尼亚加拉瀑布会侵蚀掉通往伊利湖的32千米长的河道,瀑布也将不复存在。[20]

受到冰后回弹英语post-glacial rebound和侵蚀影响,加拿大地盾的多片冰蚀湖会消失。[21]

最难分解的温室气体——四氟甲烷的估计大气寿命。[22]

Astronomy and astrophysics 50,000 由于月球潮汐力使得地球自转放缓天文学家用于计时的单位日长度将超过国际单位制下的86,401秒。如果到时候人类还在沿用目前的计时系统的话,平均每天都需要额外加一个闰秒,或者修改定义,将“一日”改为86,401秒。[23]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10万 由于银河系在不断自转,恒星也斗转星移,当今的诸多星座彼时已无法在天球上认出。[24]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10万[note 1] 特超巨星大犬座VY很可能已爆发为超新星。[25]
Geology and planetary science > 10万 人类活动产生的二氧化碳中有10%仍残留在大气层中,是为全球变暖对环境带来的长期影响。[26]
Geology and planetary science 25万 夏威夷-天皇海山链中最年轻的火山——罗希海底山会探出海平面,成为一座新的火山岛[27]
Astronomy and astrophysics 30万[note 1] 沃爾夫–拉葉星WR 104”可能会爆发为超新星。WR 104有小概率会高速旋转并产生伽玛射线暴,这些射线暴有极小概率辐射到地球上,对地球的生命造成威胁。[28][29]
Astronomy and astrophysics 50万[note 1] 若人类未能研究出让地球免受小行星冲击的方法的话,地球可能已被直径约1千米的小行星击中。[30]
Geology and planetary science 50万 美国南达科他州恶地国家公园的沟壑将完全风化消失。[31]
Geology and planetary science 100万 美国亚利桑那州的巴林杰陨石坑——同类型撞击坑中最新形成的——会风化消失。[32]
Astronomy and astrophysics 100万[note 1] 人们估计,紅超巨星參宿四最晚将在此时爆发为超新星。在爆发后的数个月里,其光芒在白日依旧可见。研究认为,这次超新星爆发会在今后的100万年内发生,甚至最快可在今后的10万年内发生。[33][34]

天王星的两颗卫星——天卫九天卫十可能已相撞。[35]

Astronomy and astrophysics 128万 ± 5万 恒星葛利斯710会在距离太阳0.0676秒差距(0.220光年;13,900天文單位)[36]处掠过太阳系,对太阳系边缘的奥尔特云造成引力攝動,可能导致大量彗星撞击内太阳系天体。[37]
Biology 200万 恢复人类引起的海洋酸化毁坏的珊瑚礁生态系统所需要的时间。6500万年前的海水酸化事件大约也花了差不多这么久才让海洋生态环境恢复如初。[38]
Geology and planetary science > 200万 美国科罗拉多大峽谷进一步风化,大幅拓宽科罗拉多河河谷。[39]
Astronomy and astrophysics 270万 当前各半人马小行星的平均轨道半生命期。这些小行星受太阳系外行星引力影响,其轨道很不稳定。[40]参见对值得注意的半人马小行星半生命期的预测
Astronomy and astrophysics 300万 地球自转逐渐放缓,这时地球上的一日比今天地球上的一日要长一分钟。[41]
Geology and planetary science 1000万 逐年变宽的東非裂谷造成红海泛滥,新形成的海洋盆地非洲大陆一分为二,非洲板块也裂开为索马里板块和新形成的努比亚板块。[42]

印度板块深入青藏高原180千米,当今尼泊尔所在的地带将不复存在。[43]

Biology 1000万 全新世动物灭绝结束后,生物多樣性完全恢复所需要的时间。此处假设全新世灭绝与前五次大型生物灭绝事件规模相当。[44]

就算没有任何大型生物灭绝事件,按背景灭绝率推算,现存的大部分生物物种在这个时间点都已灭绝,许多演化支也已演变为新形式。[45][46]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1000万-10亿[note 1] 天王星的两颗卫星——天卫二十七天卫十四很可能已相撞。[35]
Geology and planetary science 2500万 克里斯多福·史考提斯研究指出,圣安德烈亚斯断层的移动会导致海水从加利福尼亚湾涌入中央谷地,在北美洲西岸形成一片新的内海[47]
Astronomy and astrophysics 5000万 火卫一会在此之前与火星相撞。[48]
Geology and planetary science 5000万 克里斯多福·史考提斯研究指出,圣安德烈亚斯断层运动将导致当前洛杉矶旧金山所在的地带融合为一处。[47]加利福尼亚州的海岸会隐没阿留申海沟中。[49]

非洲大陆会与歐亞大陸碰撞,致使地中海盆地消失,并产生类似喜马拉雅山脉的新山脉。[50]

阿巴拉契亚山脉的各个山峰基本已蚀平,[51]消磨速率约为5.7布伯诺夫单位,不过该处山谷变深的速度比这个快上两倍,所以实际上地形反而会变得更为陡峭。[52]

Geology and planetary science 5000万-6000万 加拿大洛磯山脈将以60布伯诺夫单位的速率风化为平原。[53]美国的南落基山脉英语Southern Rocky Mountains的风化速率则略为缓慢。[54]
Geology and planetary science 5000万-4亿 地球化石燃料储量重新自然蓄满所需花费的时间。[55]
Geology and planetary science 8000万 夏威夷島会是目前夏威夷群島中最后沉入海底的岛屿,随后现有的群岛位置会形成一串新的夏威夷群岛。[56]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1亿[note 1] 如不采取任何应对手段的话,地球很可能已遭小行星撞击,该小行星与6600万年前造成白垩纪﹣古近纪灭绝事件的那颗规模相当。[57]
Geology and planetary science 1亿 克里斯多福·史考提斯的終極盤古大陸模型认为,大西洋会产生新的隐没带,美洲大陆因而会与非洲大陆慢慢聚合。[47]

土星環会解体。[58]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1.1亿 太阳亮度增加1%。[59]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.8亿 地球自转放缓,一日的长度会比现在多出一个小时。[60]
Astronomy and astrophysics 2.3亿 李雅普诺夫时间所限,人类已无法算出在此之后的天体轨道。[61]
Astronomy and astrophysics 2.4亿 以太阳系当前位置为起点,太阳系公转绕行银心一周(即一銀河年)。[62]
Geology and planetary science 2.5亿-3.5亿 地球上所有的板块将融合为一个超大陸。目前对于超大陆的形态有三种学说——阿美西亞大陸新盤古大陸終極盤古大陸[47][63]新大陆很可能会产生一段冰期,让全球海平面下降、氧气含量上升,进一步降低全球气温。[64][65]
Biology > 2.5亿 超大陆造成氧气含量上升、气温下降导致生物演化速率增加。[65]此外,火山将更加活跃,太阳亮度增加导致生存条件劣化,这一切变化会造成物种之间竞争加剧、导致生物大批灭亡,动植物可能再也不复从前那般繁盛。[66]
Geology and planetary science 3亿 赤道附近的哈德里环流圈会移动到南纬、北纬约40°的位置,地表干旱区的面积将因此增加25%。[66]
Geology and planetary science 3亿-6亿 金星地幔温度达到最高点。在之后的1亿年内,金星表面会形成大型隐没带,让地壳再循环。[67]
Geology and planetary science 3.5亿 保罗·菲利克斯·霍夫曼英语Paul F. Hoffman的外倾模型指出,太平洋盆地的隐没现象会停止。[63][68][69]
Geology and planetary science 4亿-5亿 超大陆(阿美西亞大陸、新盤古大陸和終極盤古大陸)很可能因板块漂移而再度四分五裂。[63]这很可能会导致类似白垩纪那样的全球气温升高。[65]
Astronomy and astrophysics 5亿[note 1] 距离地球6500光年范围内很可能出现伽玛射线暴或大型高能超新星爆发,这个距离范围足够让射线破坏地球臭氧层,可造成生物大范围灭绝。地球以前可能也经历过类似的近距离宇宙线辐射事件,导致大量生物灭绝。不过,超新星需要恰好对准地球的方向,才会产生这样的效果。[70]
Geology and planetary science 5亿-6亿 太阳日趋明亮的阳光会增加对表面岩石的風化作用,干扰碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环英语carbonate–silicate cycle。地球表面的岩石能够吸收二氧化碳并将其以碳酸盐的形式固定下来。随着水分的挥发,地表岩石也会变硬,导致板块运动变慢,火山活跃度降低。没有火山将地壳中存贮的碳重新释放入大气层的话,二氧化碳含量会逐步降低。[71]二氧化碳含量低到C3光合作用无法维持下去的时候,所有依靠C3光合作用的植物(约占如今99%的植物物种)会尽数死亡。[72]C3类植物的灭亡将是一个长时间缓慢的过程,而不是短时间集中爆发,可能在二氧化碳低到临界点之前这些植物就已经一个个消亡了。首当其冲的会是C3草本植物,随后是落叶森林常绿阔叶林,最后是常绿松柏[66]
Biology 5亿-8亿[note 1] 地球气温迅速升高、二氧化碳含量迅速下降,植物会演化出其他的生存方式,比如光合作用中降低对二氧化碳的需求、转为肉食性植物、更加适应干燥的生存条件英语desiccation与真菌共生来取得养分等。这些新的生存方式会在湿润温室气候伊始之时逐渐出现。[66]大部分植物的死亡会造成大气层中氧气含量下降,致使地表紫外线辐射增加、对DNA的毁坏加剧。升高的气温会让大气层中的化学反应加快,进一步降低氧含量。能飞行的动物会具有极大的竞争优势,因为它们能长距离飞行到温度较低的区域。[73]许多动物会向两极、地下迁移。这些动物会在极夜时期出行,极昼时期夏眠来避暑。大部分地表将会变成贫瘠、干旱的沙漠,动植物将主要在海洋中生存。[73]
Astronomy and astrophysics 6亿 潮汐加速让月球渐行渐远,地球上已再也看不到日全食了。[74]
Biology 8亿-9亿 二氧化碳含量持续降低,C4类植物无法再进行任何光合作用。[72]没有了植物,大气层中消耗的氧气不能恢复,自由氧气和臭氧层会消失,导致高强度致命紫外线辐射到地球表面。彼得·沃德唐纳德·布朗利英语Donald Brownlee认为有的动物可在海洋中幸存下来。不过,所有多细胞生物最终都将走向灭亡。[75]植物从地球上消失后,动物顶多能再维持1亿年,最后一批灭亡的动物将是无需依靠植物生存的动物(如白蟻),以及靠近海底熱泉蠕虫巨型管虫属动物。[66]
Geology and planetary science 10亿 地球海洋27%的质量已隐没入地幔。如果这一过程持续进行下去的话会达到一个平衡点,最终现今65%的地表水会尽数没入地幔。[76]
Geology and planetary science 11亿 太阳比现在亮10%,导致地球温度升高至320 K(47 °C)。地球的大气层会形成“湿气温室”,致使海洋蒸发速度失控。[71][77]哪怕地球板块此时仍在漂移,海水的极速蒸发也将导致板块完全停止运动。[78]:95两极处可能还会有零星的水洼,简单的生命形式仍能继续在此生存下去。[78]:79[79]
Biology 12亿 地球上植物能存续的最长时间。此处假设二氧化碳含量极低的情况下植物仍有办法进行光合作用。这一前提下,没有动物能耐受得住这样的高温,动物生命将尽数灭亡。[80][81][82]
Biology 13亿 没有了二氧化碳,真核生物将全部灭绝,地球上只剩下原核生物[75]
Astronomy and astrophysics 15亿-16亿 高强度的阳光导致太阳系宜居带外移。火星大气的二氧化碳含量增加,导致其表面温度升高至地球大冰期时代的温度。[75][83]
Astronomy and astrophysics 15亿-45亿 地月距离的增加导致月球引力难以让地球轉軸傾角继续保持稳定,地球的真极漂移英语true polar wander变化无常,地表气候将因此大幅改变。[84]
Biology 16亿 据估算原核生物全部灭绝所需要的最短时间。[75]
Astronomy and astrophysics < 20亿 仙女座星系银河系首次碰撞[85]
Geology and planetary science 20亿 大气气压在氮循环影响下降低。对流层顶的冷空气将无法再将水汽困在地球表面附近,对流层的水汽会散逸到平流层以上的高度。[86]
Geology and planetary science 23亿 假设內地核维持当前1毫米/年的增长速率,地球的外地核将完全冻住。[87][88]没有了液态外核,地磁场会消失。[89]缺少了磁场的保护,地表资源会被太阳风逐渐毁灭。[90]
Astronomy and astrophysics 25.5亿 太阳表面温度达到峰值——5,820 K。往后,太阳表面会日益冷却,但亮度仍会持续增加。[77]
Geology and planetary science 28亿 地球表面(包括极地)温度达到420 K(147 °C)。[71][91]
Biology 28亿 地球上仅剩的单细胞生物也将灭绝。灭绝前夕,这些生物在地球上各种相互隔绝的微环境(如高纬度湖泊、洞穴)中生存。[71][91]
Astronomy and astrophysics 约30亿[note 1] 地球有10万分之一的几率会在此之前被经过的天体抛射入星际空间、成为星际行星,有300万分之一的几率会被另一颗恒星俘获。如果到时候地球上还有生命在星际旅行中存活下来的话,这些生命将能够继续繁衍下去。[91]
Astronomy and astrophysics 33亿 木星引力影响下,水星有1%的几率会因轨道高离心率撞向金星,让内太阳系陷入混乱。水星还可能会撞向太阳、撞向地球或是直接飞离太阳系。[92]
Geology and planetary science 35亿-45亿 海洋中所有的水都将在此之前蒸发殆尽。空气中大量水蒸气造成的温室效应,加之太阳比现在亮35-40%,会导致地球表面温度升高至1,400 K(1,130 °C;2,060 °F),足以融化部分地表岩石。[78]:95[86][93][94]
Astronomy and astrophysics 36亿 海卫一将落入海王星洛希極限范围内,或将解体变为像土星環那样的行星环[95]
Geology and planetary science 45亿 火星的日光通量与地球形成之初(距今45亿年前)的日光通量相当。[83]
Astronomy and astrophysics < 50亿 仙女座星系与银河系在融合前的最后一次碰撞。[85]太阳系有可能在整个融合过程中被弹离到星系际空间[96][97]不过,太阳系的各个行星在此过程中不受影响。[98][99][100]
Astronomy and astrophysics 54亿 太阳耗尽自己核心的氢,从主序星紅巨星逐渐演化[101]
Geology and planetary science 65亿 火星表面的日光通量达到现在地球表面的日光通量。此后,火星将经历与上述地球类似的命运。[83]
Astronomy and astrophysics 75亿 地球与火星可能被日渐膨胀的次巨星太阳潮汐锁定[83]
Astronomy and astrophysics 75.9亿 ± 0.5亿 水星、金星、地球会被膨胀的太阳吞噬。其中水星首当其中被吞没,280万年后轮到金星,再100万年后是地球。[101]在被吞没前,受太阳光球层影响,月球将落入地球的洛希極限并裂成碎片,其中大部分会落到地球表面。[102]

在这段时间内,土卫六表面温度将升高到适宜生命存在的温度。[103]

Astronomy and astrophysics 79亿 太阳在赫羅圖中的位置达到红巨星分支的尾端,其半径是今天的256倍。[104]
Astronomy and astrophysics 80亿 太阳成为碳氧白矮星,质量是今天的54.05%。[101][105][106][107]
Astronomy and astrophysics 220亿 大撕裂宇宙模型预测的宇宙终结时刻,此处假设暗能量模型的w = −1.5[108][109]如果暗能量密度小于−1,那么宇宙会继续加速膨胀可觀測宇宙也将越来越小。大撕裂发生的2亿年前,本星系群玉夫座星系群星系群会毁灭。大撕裂发生的6000万年前,所有的星系都会从外缘开始逐步解体,4000万年后完全消散。距离大撕裂剩3个月时,万有引力已不足以维持恒星系的运转,各行星将在高速膨胀的宇宙中四散。大撕裂前30分钟,行星、恒星、小行星乃至中子星黑洞都将蒸发为原子。大撕裂前100介秒(10−19秒),原子也将分裂。最终,当大撕裂达到普朗克级时,作为时空基础的宇宙弦会解体。此时宇宙成为“撕裂奇点”。与一切物质距离无限近的“挤压奇点”相反,“撕裂奇点”中一切物质彼此间距会变得无限远。[110]不过,钱德拉X射线天文台在观测星系团后测得w约等于−0.991,意味着大撕裂不会发生。[111]
Astronomy and astrophysics 500亿 如果地球与月球没有被太阳吞噬,那么此时地球与月球会互相潮汐锁定,地球将永远只有一面对着月球。[112][113]白矮星太阳的潮汐力会消磨地月系统中的角动量,导致月球公转轨道缩小、地球越转越快。[114]
Astronomy and astrophysics 650亿 若地月系统未被红巨星阶段的太阳吞噬,月球此时会撞到地球上。[115]
Astronomy and astrophysics 900亿-1万亿 本星系群的所有星系将合并为一个巨大的星系。[5]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1000亿-1500亿 宇宙的膨胀导致曾经银河系所在的本星系群范围以外的所有星系都退至粒子视界以外,从可观测宇宙中永远消失。[116]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1500亿 宇宙微波背景降到0.3 K,这一温度用目前的技术手段完全检测不到。[117]
Astronomy and astrophysics 3250亿 宇宙中一切靠重力维系的结构彼此之间都会相互隔离到自己的宇宙学视界中。至此,宇宙已比现在膨胀了超过1亿倍。[118]
Astronomy and astrophysics 8000亿 银河系与仙女座星系合并后的星系亮度减弱,因为星系中的紅矮星已经过了最亮的藍矮星阶段。[119]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1万亿 若暗能量密度维持恒定,此时宇宙的膨胀导致微波背景的波长增大到现在的1029,超过了粒子视界的尺度,导致这一大爆炸的证据已无法用任何其他手段测出。不过,通过恒星的运动还是可以测出宇宙的膨胀的。[116]
Astronomy and astrophysics > 1万亿 残存的星際雲已不足以再形成新的恒星[5]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1.05万亿 宇宙已膨胀超过1026倍,粒子密度降到平均每个宇宙学视界范围少于一个粒子。自此,星际间所有未受引力束缚的粒子都已相互隔绝,这些物质之间的互相碰撞也不再影响到宇宙的未来。.[118]
Astronomy and astrophysics 2万亿 所有不在本星系群内的天体的红移值超过1053,就连能量最强的伽马射线波长都已经超过粒子视界大小。[120]
Astronomy and astrophysics 4万亿 红矮星比邻星从主序星变为白矮星。[121]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10万亿 假设低质量恒星(0.1太阳质量)附近最容易出现生命的话,此时宇宙中拥有大量的低质量恒星,最有可能有类似现在地球上的生命出现。[122]
Astronomy and astrophysics 12万亿 在2017年EBLM J0555-57Ab被发现以前最小的主序星——红矮星VB 10燃尽内部的氢燃料,变为白矮星。[123][124]
Astronomy and astrophysics 30万亿 恒星(包括太阳)近距离接触另一颗恒星平均所需花费的时间。两颗恒星(或致密星)互相接近时会摄动彼此行星的运行轨道,将行星从恒星系中弹离。行星距离母星越近,母星对它的引力束缚越大,摄动造成的影响就越小。[125]
Astronomy and astrophysics < 100万亿 星系中不会再有新的恒星形成。[5]宇宙从恒星纪元迈向简并纪元;没有了自由氢元素来形成新的恒星,所有的恒星都将逐渐耗尽寿命并死亡。[4]此时,宇宙已膨胀到原先的102554倍。[118]
Astronomy and astrophysics 110万亿-120万亿 宇宙中所有的恒星都已耗尽燃料(寿命最长的红矮星通常能燃烧10万亿-20万亿年上下)。[5]

棕矮星之间相互撞击融合可以形成红矮星,但数量很少。平均下来,原来的银河星只会剩下不到100颗恒星。恒星残骸的碰撞偶尔也会造成超新星爆发。[5]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1000万亿 受到临近天体的摄动影响,星系中所有的行星都已被弹离出原先所在的恒星系。[5]

太阳已经冷却到5 K(−268.15 °C)。[126]

Astronomy and astrophysics 1019-1020 星系中90-99%的棕矮星和恒星残骸已被弹离。两个天体相互靠近时会交换轨道能量,较轻的天体携带的能量会逐渐增加。多次接触大天体后,小型天体会获得足够动能来离开原星系。这一过程会让原银河系失去绝大部分棕矮星和恒星残骸。[5][127]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1020 若先前地球未被太阳吞噬、未因摄动离开太阳系的话,此时地球的轨道能量已通过引力波的形式释出,地球将会撞向太阳。[128]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1023 星系团已弹离自身的绝大部分天体。微波背景辐射温度也已降至10-13 K。[129]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1030 星系中剩余未弹离的物质(约占1–10%)全部落入原星系中央的超大質量黑洞。此时,由于引力波辐射的缘故,聯星已相互撞击融合,行星已遭其母星吞噬,宇宙将只剩下孤立的天体和物质(弹离的行星、恒星残骸、棕矮星、黑洞)。[5]
Particle physics 2×1036 可观测宇宙中的核子全部衰变。此处假设质子半衰期取其数值下限8.2×1033年。[130][131]
Particle physics 3×1043 可观测宇宙中的核子全部衰变。此处假设质子半衰期取其数值上限1041年、[5]大爆炸造成了暴胀、早期宇宙造成重子数量远超反重子的机制也导致了质子衰变。[131]自此,宇宙进入“黑洞纪元”,黑洞会是宇宙中唯一的天体。[4][5]
Particle physics 1065 若质子不会衰变,宇宙中的“刚体”(四散漂浮的岩石、行星等)的原子分子会因量子隧穿效应重新排列。这时候,任何独立的物质团都会有液体一样的性状,在扩散、引力作用下变为一个光滑的球体。[128]
Particle physics 2×1066 1个太阳质量的黑洞此时已因霍金輻射蒸发为次原子粒子[132]
Particle physics 6×1099 截至2021年 (2021-Missing required parameter 1=month!)人类发现质量最大的黑洞——质量达到6600万太阳质量的TON 618通过霍金辐射蒸发,此处假设TON 618不会旋转(零角动量)。[132]
Particle physics 1.7×10106 20万亿太阳质量的超大黑洞也因霍金辐射蒸发殆尽,[132]标志着黑洞纪元的结束。此时,若质子会衰变,则宇宙会进入“黑暗纪元”,所有的物质都将变为亚原子粒子,慢慢进入宇宙热寂时的最终能量状态。[4][5]
Particle physics 10139 宇宙标准模型中,假真空开始坍缩。由于顶夸克的质量不确定,此估值的95%置信区间在1058到10549年之间。[133]
Particle physics < 10200 哪怕核子没有因此前的一系列现象衰变的话,此时核子也会因当代物理学预测的各种不同机制在1046至10200年内衰变。这些机制有:高阶重子数不守恒过程、虚黑洞sphaleron等。[4]
Particle physics 101100-32000 若质子不会衰变,此时大于等于1.2太阳质量的黑矮星的电子丰度下降、錢德拉塞卡極限减小,因--聚变而开始超新星爆发。[134]
Particle physics 101500 若质子不会衰变,大天体中所有的重子物质要么经历Μ子催化聚变,要么衰变,最终这些天体全部变为铁-56构成的铁星[128]
Particle physics [note 2] 所有铁星此时都将通过量子隧穿效应变为黑洞,此处假设质子不会衰变、宇宙中不会产生虚黑洞。[128]
Particle physics [note 1][note 2] 玻尔兹曼大脑通过自发减在真空中产生。[7]
Particle physics < [note 2] 所有铁星都已坍缩成黑洞,假设质子不会衰变、虚黑洞不会产生。这些铁星随即蒸发为亚原子粒子,标志着此假设条件下,黑洞纪元的结束与黑暗纪元的开始。[128]
Particle physics < [note 2] 算上假真空的影响,宇宙将进入其最终能量状态——热寂。[7]
Particle physics [note 1][note 2] 量子效应会产生新一轮大爆炸,从中诞生出新的宇宙。量子隧穿效应可在旧宇宙中任何孤立的空间造成局部的暴胀,导致大爆炸。[135]

可观测宇宙中所有亚原子粒子总共有种方式结合在一起,[136][137]不过这一数字与相乘后对数量级的影响微乎其微,因此也是通过量子隧穿与量子涨落形成与旧宇宙完全相同的新宇宙所需要的时间。新宇宙的弦理论地景也将与旧宇宙相同。[138][139]

人类文明[编辑]

Key.svg 距今年份 事件
technology and culture 10,000 法蘭克·德雷克提出的德雷克公式中,具有与外太空通信能力的技术文明最有可能的存续时间。[140]

布兰登·卡特在其末日论证中的公式指出,人类有95%的几率会灭绝。卡特认为,地球上过去、现在、未来的所有人类中有一半已经出生了。[141]

Biology 10,000 全球化导致人类交配不再受到地域限制有效种群大小将等于全球人口数量,各地人类基因趋于等同。[142]
technology and culture 20,000 莫里斯·斯瓦迪士语言年代学模型指出,未来人类语言的“核心词汇”与现代语言的核心词汇只剩1%重合。[143]
Geology and planetary science 10万 将火星改造成地球所需要的最短时间。这里要求改造后的火星有富氧大气可供人类呼吸,这些氧气将全部由植物提供,植物的光合作用效率应与现有的地球植物相当。[144]
Technology and culture 10万-100万 人类殖民银河系利用整个星系生产能源(成为III型文明)。[145]
Biology 200万 分隔两地的同一脊椎动物物种在经历这样长的时间后会各自形成新的物种[146]如果人类殖民到银河系各地的话,此时人类将因空间上的分隔而演化出新的种群。[147]
technology and culture 780万 约翰·理查德·戈特英语J. Richard Gott在其末日论证中称,人类有95%的几率在此之前灭绝。[148]
technology and culture 1亿 法兰克·德雷克提出的德雷克公式中,具有与外太空通信能力的技术文明寿命的上限。[149]
Astronomy and astrophysics 10亿 因太阳日趋明亮造成宜居带外移,利用小行星重力助推改变地球轨道、将地球推离太阳的天文工程英语Astronomical engineering所需花费的时间。[150][151]

航天器与宇宙探索[编辑]

目前人类发射的航天器中,计划飞出太阳系、驶向星际空间的共有五枚,分别是:旅行者1号旅行者2号先驱者10号先驱者11号新视野号。这些航天器与其他天体相撞的几率十分渺小,极可能会一直飞行下去。[152]

Key.svg 距今年份 事件
Astronomy and astrophysics 16,900 旅行者1号掠经距离比邻星3.5光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 18,500 先驱者11号掠经距离南门二3.4光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 20,300 旅行者2号掠经距离南门二2.9光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 25,000 1974年11月16日发出的无线电数据阿雷西博信息抵达其目的地——球狀星團M13[154]信号抵达时,M13星团已位移24光年。不过星团直径168光年,所以阿雷西博信息仍可顺利抵达目的地。[155]
Astronomy and astrophysics 33,800 先驱者10号掠经距离罗斯248 3.4光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 34,400 先驱者10号掠经距离南门二3.4光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 42,200 旅行者2号掠经距离罗斯248 1.7光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 44,100 旅行者1号掠经距离格利泽445 1.8光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 46,600 先驱者11号掠经距离格利泽445 1.9光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 90,300 先驱者10号掠经距离HIP 117795 0.76光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 30.61万 旅行者1号掠经距离TYC 3135-52-1 1光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 49.23万 旅行者1号掠经距离HD 28343 1.3光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 120万 先驱者11号掠经距离天弁二 3光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 130万 先驱者10号掠经距离HD 52456 1.5光年的位置。[153]
Astronomy and astrophysics 200万 先驱者10号掠经毕宿五附近。[156]
Astronomy and astrophysics 400万 先驱者11号掠经天鷹座[156]
Astronomy and astrophysics 800万 两张先驱者镀金铝板受星际尘埃侵蚀,其雕刻图案已无法再辨认。[157]

LAGEOS英语LAGEOS卫星重返大气层,携带有给未来文明的信息,以及人类对这段时期地图形状的预测。[158]

Astronomy and astrophysics 10亿 两张旅行者金唱片的预期使用寿命。此后,唱片上的信息将无法用技术手段恢复。[159]
Astronomy and astrophysics 1020 先驱者、旅行者航天器撞上恒星(或恒星残骸)所需的时间尺度。[153]

科学技术[编辑]

Key.svg 日期/距今年份 事件
technology and culture 2000 北极世界档案馆中的数字胶片在理想保存条件下的最长使用寿命。档案馆中存放了一些历史资料,以及GitHub上的开源项目代码。[160]
technology and culture 公元6939年 1939年和1964年埋下的两个西屋时间舱计划开启时间。[161]
technology and culture 公元6970年 1970年世界博覽會埋在大阪城一座纪念碑底下的时间胶囊计划开启时间。[162][163]
technology and culture 公元8113年5月28日 第二次世界大战停火前在亚特兰大封存的时间胶囊——“文明窖藏”的计划开启时间。[164][165]
technology and culture 1万 恒今基金会发起的数个项目的时长。这些计划有:万年钟英语Clock of the Long Now罗塞塔项目Long Bet计划。[166]
Biology 1万 挪威斯瓦尔巴全球种子库的计划运行时长。[167]
technology and culture 公元275760年9月13日 编程语言JavaScript的系统时间上限。[168]
technology and culture 100万 位于哈尔施塔特盐矿的项目——Memory of Mankind的计划存储时长。该计划可将用户想要流传后世的信息刻在炻板上。[169]
technology and culture 10亿 纳米梭英语Molecular shuttle存储设备”的存储年限。该项技术可将铁纳米粒子英语iron nanoparticle碳纳米管中移动,这些粒子起到分子开关英语molecular switch之用。[170]
technology and culture > 130亿 5D光数据存储”的存储年限。5D光数据存储使用飞秒级激光,可将数据写入玻璃的纳米结构中。[171][172]
technology and culture 公元292277026596年 64位UNIX操作系统的系统时间会数字溢出[173]

人类遗迹[编辑]

Key.svg 距今年份 事件
Geology and planetary science 100万 人类当前居住环境中的玻璃物体将被分解。[174]

假设以1布伯诺夫单位单位的速度(1,000年为1毫米,或25,000年为≈1英寸),在中等气候下,各种由硬花岗岩组成的公共古迹将腐蚀一米Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have eroded one metre, in a moderate climate, assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit英语Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).[175]


在月亮上,由于太空风化的累积影响,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗在静海基地留下的足迹及其他所有十二名阿波罗计划中的登月宇航员所留下的足迹都将被侵蚀,届时将不会有任何痕迹得以留存。On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" 脚印 at Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space weathering.[176][177] (由于月球几乎完全缺乏大气层,因此不存在活跃在地球上的正常侵蚀过程。)(Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present due to the Moon's almost complete lack of atmosphere.)

Geology and planetary science 1亿 未来的考古学家应该能够找到大型沿海城市化石的“城市地层”,主要是通过地下基础设施的遗存,例如建筑基础综合管廊[178]

核能源[编辑]

Key.svg 距今年份 事件
Particle physics 10,000 The 废物隔离示范工厂, for nuclear weapons waste, is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through both multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and through pictograms.[179]
Particle physics 24,000 The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600-平方公里(1,000-平方英里) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation.[180]
Geology and planetary science 30,000 Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based breeder reactor reserves, using known sources, assuming 2009 world energy consumption.[181]
Geology and planetary science 60,000 Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based light-water reactor reserves if it is possible to extract all the uranium from seawater, assuming 2009 world energy consumption.[181]
Particle physics 211,000 Half-life of technetium-99英语technetium-99, the most important long-lived fission product in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
Particle physics 250,000 The estimated minimum time at which the spent plutonium stored at New Mexico's 废物隔离示范工厂 will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.[182]
Particle physics 15.7 million Half-life of iodine-129英语iodine-129, the most durable long-lived fission product in uranium-derived nuclear waste.
Geology and planetary science 60 million Estimated supply lifespan of fusion power reserves if it is possible to extract all the lithium from seawater, assuming 1995 world energy consumption.[183]
Geology and planetary science 5 billion Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based breeder reactor reserves if it is possible to extract all the uranium from seawater, assuming 1983 world energy consumption.[184]
Geology and planetary science 150 billion Estimated supply lifespan of fusion power reserves if it is possible to extract all the deuterium from seawater, assuming 1995 world energy consumption.[183]

参见[编辑]

注解[编辑]

  1. ^ 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 此时间为统计学概率估算出的发生时间。实际上,该事件在任意时间点均可能发生。
  2. ^ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 虽然此处单位用的是“年”,但实际在这样的时间尺度中,时间的单位已经不重要了。

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