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← 2018年美国众议院选举


竞争性席位的评级及选举结果[编辑]

多个网站和个人发布具竞争性席位的预测评级。下方列出的这些席位中的许多都至少被一个评级组织认定为有竞争性(不是"安全"或"坚定"的)。 这些评级考虑众多因素,例如现任者的强弱(如果现任者竞逐连任),候选人的强弱,以及该选区的党派倾向(部分程度上由其库克党派投票指数英语Cook Partisan Voting Index(CPVI)指示)。每个席位的评级指示某个政党赢得该席位的优势的级别。

多数选举评级使用以下分级:

  • "tossup": 无优势
  • "tilt" (有时使用): 不如"lean"强的优势
  • "lean": 微弱优势
  • "likely" or "favored": 显著但可逆转的优势
  • "safe" or "solid": 几乎可以确定的胜利
选区英语List of United States congressional districts CPVI英语Cook Partisan Voting Index [1][2] 现任者 最近选举结果[3] 库克英语Cook Political Report
10月30日
(2018年,下同)
[4]
I.E.英语Inside Elections
11月1日[5]
萨巴托英语Sabato's Crystal Ball
11月1日[6]
CNN
10月28日[7]
RCP英语Real Clear Politics
10月24日[8]
Daily Kos英语Daily Kos
11月2日[9]
538
11月2日[a][10]
Politico英语Politico
10月26日[11]
获胜者[12]
阿拉斯加州单一国会选区 R+9 唐·揚 (R) 50.3% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R 唐·揚 (R)
亞利桑那州第1国会选区 R+2 Tom O'Halleran英语Tom O'Halleran (D) 50.7% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D (D) Tom O'Halleran
亞利桑那州第2国会选区 R+1 Martha McSally英语Martha McSally (R) (退休) 57.0% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手) (D) Ann Kirkpatrick英语Ann Kirkpatrick
亞利桑那州第6国会选区 R+9 大衛·斯維科特 (R) 62.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R 大衛·斯維科特 (R)
亞利桑那州第8国会选区 R+13 Debbie Lesko英语Debbie Lesko (R) 52.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Debbie Lesko (R)
亞利桑那州第9国会选区 D+4 克里斯滕·希尼玛 (D) (退休) 60.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Greg Stanton英语Greg Stanton
阿肯色州第2国会选区 R+7 弗蘭奇·希爾 (R) 58.4% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R 弗蘭奇·希爾 (R)
加利福尼亞州第1国会选区 R+11 道格·拉馬爾法 (R) 59.1% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Doug LaMalfa (R)
加利福尼亞州第4国会选区 R+10 湯姆·麥克林托克 (R) 62.7% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R 湯姆·麥克林托克 (R)
加利福尼亞州第7国会选区 D+3 Ami Bera英语Ami Bera (D) 51.2% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Lean D (D) Ami Bera
加利福尼亞州第10国会选区 傑夫·鄧哈姆 (R) 51.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (易手) Tossup Josh Harder英语Josh Harder (D)
加利福尼亞州第16国会选区 D+9 Jim Costa英语Jim Costa (D) 58.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Jim Costa
加利福尼亞州第21国会选区 D+5 大衛·瓦拉道 (R) 56.7% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R TJ Cox英语TJ Cox (D)
加利福尼亞州第22国会选区 R+8 Devin Nunes (R) 67.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Devin Nunes (R)
加利福尼亞州第24国会选区 D+7 Salud Carbajal英语Salud Carbajal (D) 53.4% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Salud Carbajal
加利福尼亞州第25国会选区 Steve Knight (R) 53.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Katie Hill英语Katie Hill (D)
加利福尼亞州第39国会选区 Ed Royce (R) (退休) 57.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Gil Cisneros英语Gil Cisneros (D)
加利福尼亞州第45国会选区 R+3 Mimi Walters (R) 58.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Katie Porter英语Katie Porter (D)
加利福尼亞州第48国会选区 R+4 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 58.3% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Harley Rouda英语Harley Rouda (D)
加利福尼亞州第49国会选区 R+1 Darrell Issa (R) (退休) 50.3% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手) Mike Levin英语Mike Levin (D)
加利福尼亞州第50国会选区 R+11 Duncan D. Hunter (R) 63.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Duncan Hunter (R)
科羅拉多州第3国会选区 R+6 Scott Tipton (R) 54.6% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Scott Tipton (R)
科羅拉多州第6国会选区 D+2 Mike Coffman (R) 50.9% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) (D) Jason Crow
康涅狄格州第5国会选区 D+2 Elizabeth Esty英语Elizabeth Esty (D) (退休) 58.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Jahana Hayes
佛罗里达州第6国会选区 R+7 空缺 58.6% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Michael Waltz英语Michael Waltz (R)
佛罗里达州第7国会选区 Stephanie Murphy英语Stephanie Murphy (D) 51.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D (D) Stephanie Murphy
佛罗里达州第13国会选区 D+2 Charlie Crist (D) 51.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Charlie Crist
佛罗里达州第15国会选区 R+6 Dennis A. Ross (R) (退休) 57.5% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Ross Spano英语Ross Spano (R)
佛罗里达州第16国会选区 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 59.8% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Vern Buchanan (R)
佛罗里达州第18国会选区 R+5 Brian Mast (R) 53.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Brian Mast (R)
佛罗里达州第25国会选区 R+4 Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 62.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
佛罗里达州第26国会选区 D+6 Carlos Curbelo英语Carlos Curbelo (politician) (R) 53.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup (D) Debbie Mucarsel-Powell英语Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
佛罗里达州第27国会选区 D+5 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen英语Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (退休) 54.9% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Tossup (D) Donna Shalala英语Donna Shalala
喬治亞州第6国会选区 R+8 Karen Handel英语Karen Handel (R) 51.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R (D) Lucy McBath英语Lucy McBath
喬治亞州第7国会选区 R+9 Rob Woodall (R) 60.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Rob Woodall (R)
伊利諾州第6国会选区 R+2 Peter Roskam (R) 59.2% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Sean Casten英语Sean Casten (D)
伊利諾州第12国会选区 R+5 Mike Bost (R) 54.3% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Mike Bost (R)
伊利諾州第13国会选区 R+3 Rodney Davis (R) 59.7% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Rodney Davis (R)
伊利諾州第14国会选区 R+5 Randy Hultgren (R) 59.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lauren Underwood英语Lauren Underwood (D)
伊利諾州第17国会选区 D+3 Cheri Bustos英语Cheri Bustos (D) 60.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Cheri Bustos英语Cheri Bustos (D)
印第安納州第2国会选区 R+11 Jackie Walorski英语Jackie Walorski (R) 59.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Jackie Walorski英语Jackie Walorski (R)
印第安納州第9国会选区 R+13 Trey Hollingsworth (R) 54.1% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Trey Hollingsworth (R)
艾奧瓦州第1国会选区 D+1 Rod Blum (R) 53.7% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手) Abby Finkenauer英语Abby Finkenauer (D)
艾奧瓦州第2国会选区 D+1 Dave Loebsack (D) 53.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Dave Loebsack (D)
艾奧瓦州第3国会选区 R+1 David Young (R) 53.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Cindy Axne英语Cindy Axne (D)
艾奧瓦州第4国会选区 R+11 Steve King (R) 61.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Steve King (R)
堪薩斯州第2国会选区 R+10 Lynn Jenkins英语Lynn Jenkins (R) (退休) 60.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Steve Watkins英语Steve Watkins (politician) (R)
堪薩斯州第3国会选区 R+4 Kevin Yoder (R) 51.3% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Sharice Davids英语Sharice Davids (D)
肯塔基州第6国会选区 R+9 Andy Barr (R) 61.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Andy Barr (R)
緬因州第2国会选区 R+2 Bruce Poliquin (R) 54.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Jared Golden英语Jared Golden (D)
馬利蘭州第6国会选区 D+6 John Delaney (D) (退休) 56.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D David Trone英语David Trone (D)
麻薩諸塞州第9国会选区 D+4 Bill Keating (D) 55.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Bill Keating (D)
密芝根州第1国会选区 R+9 Jack Bergman (R) 54.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Jack Bergman (R)
密芝根州第2国会选区 R+9 Bill Huizenga (R) 62.6% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Bill Huizenga (R)
密芝根州第3国会选区 R+6 Justin Amash (R) 59.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Justin Amash (R)
密芝根州第5国会选区 D+5 Dan Kildee (D) 61.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Dan Kildee (D)
密芝根州第6国会选区 R+4 Fred Upton (R) 58.7% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Fred Upton (R)
密芝根州第7国会选区 R+7 Tim Walberg (R) 55.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Tim Walberg (R)
密芝根州第8国会选区 R+4 Mike Bishop英语Mike Bishop (politician) (R) 56.0% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Elissa Slotkin英语Elissa Slotkin (D)
密芝根州第11国会选区 R+4 Dave Trott (R) (退休) 52.9% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Haley Stevens英语Haley Stevens (D)
明尼蘇達州第1国会选区 R+5 Tim Walz (D) (退休) 50.3% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Jim Hagedorn英语Jim Hagedorn (politician) (R)
明尼蘇達州第2国会选区 R+2 Jason Lewis (R) 47.0% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Angie Craig英语Angie Craig (D)
明尼蘇達州第3国会选区 D+1 Erik Paulsen (R) 56.7% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Dean Phillips英语Dean Phillips (D)
明尼蘇達州第7国会选区 R+12 Collin Peterson (D) 52.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Collin Peterson (D)
明尼蘇達州第8国会选区 R+4 Rick Nolan英语Rick Nolan (D) (退休) 50.2% D Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Likely R (易手) Lean R (易手) Pete Stauber英语Pete Stauber (R)
密蘇里州第2国会选区 R+8 Ann Wagner英语Ann Wagner (R) 58.5% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Ann Wagner英语Ann Wagner (R)
蒙大拿州单一国会选区 R+11 Greg Gianforte英语Greg Gianforte (R) 49.9% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Greg Gianforte英语Greg Gianforte (R)
內布拉斯加州第2国会选区 R+4 Don Bacon (R) 48.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Don Bacon (R)
內華達州第3国会选区 R+2 Jacky Rosen (D) (退休) 47.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Susie Lee英语Susie Lee (D)
內華達州第4国会选区 D+3 Ruben Kihuen英语Ruben Kihuen (D) (退休) 48.5% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Steven Horsford英语Steven Horsford (D)
新罕布什爾州第1国会选区 R+2 Carol Shea-Porter英语Carol Shea-Porter (D) (退休) 44.3% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Chris Pappas英语Chris Pappas (politician) (D)
新罕布什爾州第2国会选区 D+2 Ann McLane Kuster英语Ann McLane Kuster (D) 49.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Ann McLane Kuster英语Ann McLane Kuster (D)
新澤西州第2国会选区 R+1 Frank LoBiondo英语Frank LoBiondo (R) (退休) 59.2% R Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Jeff Van Drew英语Jeff Van Drew (D)
新澤西州第3国会选区 R+2 Tom MacArthur (R) 59.3% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Andy Kim英语Andy Kim (politician) (D)
新澤西州第4国会选区 R+8 Chris Smith (R) 63.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Chris Smith (R)
新澤西州第5国会选区 R+3 Josh Gottheimer英语Josh Gottheimer (D) 51.1% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Safe D Likely D Josh Gottheimer英语Josh Gottheimer (D)
新澤西州第7国会选区 R+3 Leonard Lance (R) 54.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (易手) Tossup Tom Malinowski英语Tom Malinowski (D)
新澤西州第11国会选区 R+3 Rodney Frelinghuysen英语Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) (退休) 58.0% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Mikie Sherrill英语Mikie Sherrill (D)
新墨西哥州第1国会选区 D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham英语Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) (退休) 65.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Deb Haaland英语Deb Haaland (D)
新墨西哥州第2国会选区 R+6 Steve Pearce (R) (退休) 62.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Xochitl Torres Small英语Xochitl Torres Small (D)
紐約州第1国会选区 R+5 Lee Zeldin (R) 58.2% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lee Zeldin (R)
紐約州第2国会选区 R+3 Peter King (R) 57.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R Peter King (R)
紐約州第3国会选区 D+1 Thomas Suozzi (D) 52.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Thomas Suozzi (D)
紐約州第11国会选区 R+3 Dan Donovan (R) 61.5% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Max Rose英语Max Rose (politician) (D)
紐約州第18国会选区 R+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.6% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
紐約州第19国会选区 R+2 John Faso (R) 54.0% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Antonio Delgado英语Antonio Delgado (politician) (D)
紐約州第21国会选区 R+4 Elise Stefanik英语Elise Stefanik (R) 61.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Elise Stefanik英语Elise Stefanik (R)
紐約州第22国会选区 R+6 Claudia Tenney (R) 46.5% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Anthony Brindisi英语Anthony Brindisi (D)
紐約州第23国会选区 R+6 Tom Reed (R) 57.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tom Reed (R)
紐約州第24国会选区 D+3 John Katko (R) 60.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R John Katko (R)
紐約州第27国会选区 R+11 Chris Collins (R) 67.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Chris Collins英语Chris Collins (R)
北卡羅萊納州第2国会选区 R+7 George Holding (R) 56.7% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup George Holding (R)
北卡羅萊納州第6国会选区 R+9 Mark Walker (R) 59.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Mark Walker (R)
北卡羅萊納州第7国会选区 R+9 David Rouzer (R) 60.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R David Rouzer (R)
北卡羅萊納州第8国会选区 R+8 Richard Hudson (R) 58.8% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Richard Hudson (R)
北卡羅萊納州第9国会选区 R+8 Robert Pittenger (R) (未能重获提名) 58.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Uncertified
北卡羅萊納州第13国会选区 R+6 Ted Budd (R) 56.1% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Ted Budd (R)
俄亥俄州第1国会选区 R+5 Steve Chabot (R) 59.2% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Steve Chabot (R)
俄亥俄州第7国会选区 R+12 Bob Gibbs (R) 64.0% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Bob Gibbs (R)
俄亥俄州第10国会选区 R+4 Mike Turner (R) 64.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Turner (R)
俄亥俄州第12国会选区 R+7 Troy Balderson英语Troy Balderson (R) 50.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Troy Balderson英语Troy Balderson (R)
俄亥俄州第14国会选区 R+5 David Joyce (R) 62.6% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R David Joyce (R)
俄亥俄州第15国会选区 R+7 Steve Stivers (R) 66.2% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Steve Stivers (R)
俄亥俄州第16国会选区 R+8 Jim Renacci (R) (退休) 65.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Anthony Gonzalez英语Anthony Gonzalez (R)
奧克拉荷馬州第5国会选区 R+10 Steve Russell (R) 57.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Kendra Horn英语Kendra Horn (D)
俄勒岡州第5国会选区 Kurt Schrader (D) 53.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Kurt Schrader (D)
賓夕凡尼亞州第1国会选区 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) (新选区) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
賓夕凡尼亞州第5国会选区 D+13 空缺 (新选区) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Mary Gay Scanlon英语Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
賓夕凡尼亞州第6国会选区 D+2 Ryan Costello (R) (退休) (新选区) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Chrissy Houlahan英语Chrissy Houlahan (D)
賓夕凡尼亞州第7国会选区 D+1 空缺 (新选区) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Susan Wild英语Susan Wild (D)
賓夕凡尼亞州第8国会选区 R+1 Matt Cartwright英语Matt Cartwright (D) (新选区) Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Matt Cartwright英语Matt Cartwright (D)
賓夕凡尼亞州第10国会选区 R+6 Scott Perry (R) (新选区) Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Scott Perry (R)
賓夕凡尼亞州第11国会选区 R+14 Lloyd Smucker (R) (新选区) Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lloyd Smucker (R)
賓夕凡尼亞州第14国会选区 R+14 Conor Lamb英语Conor Lamb (D) (在第十七选区参选) (新选区) Likely R (易手) Likely R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手) Likely R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手) Guy Reschenthaler英语Guy Reschenthaler (R)
賓夕凡尼亞州第16国会选区 R+8 Mike Kelly (R) (新选区) Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Mike Kelly (R)
賓夕凡尼亞州第17国会选区 R+3 Keith Rothfus (R) (新选区) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) (D) Conor Lamb
南卡羅萊納州第1国会选区 R+10 Mark Sanford (R) (未能重获提名) 58.6% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R (D) Joe Cunningham
德克薩斯州第2国会选区 R+11 Ted Poe (R) (退休) 60.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Dan Crenshaw英语Dan Crenshaw (R)
德克薩斯州第6国会选区 R+9 Joe Barton (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Ron Wright英语Ron Wright (politician) (R)
德克薩斯州第7国会选区 R+7 John Culberson (R) 56.2% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lizzie Fletcher英语Lizzie Fletcher (D)
德克薩斯州第10国会选区 R+9 Michael T. McCaul (R) 57.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
德克薩斯州第21国会选区 R+10 Lamar Smith (R) (退休) 57.0% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第22国会选区 R+10 Pete Olson (R) 59.5% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第23国会选区 R+1 Will Hurd英语Will Hurd (R) 48.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
德克薩斯州第24国会选区 R+9 Kenny Marchant (R) 56.2% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
德克薩斯州第25国会选区 R+11 Roger Williams (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
德克薩斯州第31国会选区 R+10 John Carter (R) 58.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第32国会选区 R+5 Pete Sessions (R) 71.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Colin Allred英语Colin Allred (D)
猶他州第4国会选区 R+13 Mia Love英语Mia Love (R) 53.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean R Ben McAdams英语Ben McAdams (D)
弗吉尼亞州第2国会选区 R+3 Scott Taylor (R) 61.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Elaine Luria英语Elaine Luria (D)
弗吉尼亞州第5国会选区 R+6 Tom Garrett (R) (退休) 58.2% R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Denver Riggleman英语Denver Riggleman (R)
弗吉尼亞州第7国会选区 R+6 Dave Brat (R) 57.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Abigail Spanberger英语Abigail Spanberger (D)
弗吉尼亞州第10国会选区 D+1 Barbara Comstock英语Barbara Comstock (R) 52.7% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Jennifer Wexton英语Jennifer Wexton (D)
華盛頓州第3国会选区 R+4 Jaime Herrera Beutler英语Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 61.8% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Jaime Herrera Beutler英语Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
華盛頓州第5国会选区 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers英语Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 59.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Cathy McMorris Rodgers英语Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
華盛頓州第8国会选区 Dave Reichert (R) (退休) 60.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Kim Schrier英语Kim Schrier (D)
西弗吉尼亞州第2国会选区 R+17 阿萊克斯·穆尼 (R) 58.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Alex Mooney (R)
西弗吉尼亞州第3国会选区 R+23 空缺 67.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Carol Miller英语Carol Miller (politician) (R)
威斯康辛州第1国会选区 R+5 保羅·萊恩 (R) (退休) 65.0% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Bryan Steil英语Bryan Steil (R)
威斯康辛州第3国会选区 榮·肯德 (D) 98.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D 榮·肯德 (D)
威斯康辛州第6国会选区 R+8 格倫·格羅斯曼 (R) 57.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Lean R Lean R 格倫·格羅斯曼 (R)
选区 CPVI英语Cook Partisan Voting Index 现任者 最近选举结果 库克英语Cook Political Report I.E.英语Inside Elections 萨巴托英语Sabato's Crystal Ball CNN RCP英语Real Clear Politics Daily Kos英语Daily Kos 538 Politico英语Politico 获胜者

一般选票民调[编辑]

以下是针对应答者在即将到来的选举中的政党倾向开展的民调。[13]来自追踪民调(Tracking Poll)的重复数据不被收录。例如从2017年5月19日开始追踪的易索普/路透社民调的采样周期是五天,因此每六个民调结果中这里只收录一个。如果一支民调同时包括来自成年人及来自注册选民或可能选民的结果,此处只列出从选民中抽样的结果。


Notes[编辑]

  1. ^ 反映其预测模型的"经典"版本(考虑经调整的民调数据、相似选区的民调数据以及非民调的“基本要素”)。

References[编辑]

  1. ^ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally. Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. Cook Political Report. April 11, 2018 [April 11, 2018]. 
  2. ^ Wasserman, David. New Pennsylvania Map Is a Major Boost for Democrats. Cook Political Report. April 11, 2018 [April 11, 2018]. 
  3. ^ 2016 House Election Results. Politico. December 13, 2016 [February 14, 2017]. 
  4. ^ 2018 House Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. [October 30, 2018]. 
  5. ^ 2018 House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. [November 1, 2018]. 
  6. ^ 2018 House. Sabato's Crystal Ball英语Sabato's Crystal Ball. [November 1, 2018]. 
  7. ^ CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move towards Democrats. CNN. [October 28, 2018]. 
  8. ^ Battle for the House 2018. RCP. [October 24, 2018]. 
  9. ^ Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos英语Daily Kos. Daily Kos Elections. [October 30, 2018]. 
  10. ^ Silver, Nate. 2018 House Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. August 16, 2018 [November 2, 2018]. 
  11. ^ Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election. POLITICO. [October 9, 2018]. 
  12. ^ House Election Results: Democrats Take Control. 纽约时报. November 7, 2018 [November 7, 2018]. 
  13. ^ Congress Generic Ballot Polls. FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. [January 4, 2018]. , see downloadable data.