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← 2018年美国众议院选举


竞争性席位的评级及选举结果[编辑]

多个网站和个人发布具竞争性席位的预测评级。下方列出的这些席位中的许多都至少被一个评级组织认定为有竞争性(不是"安全"或"坚定"的)。 这些评级考虑众多因素,例如现任者的强弱(如果现任者竞逐连任),候选人的强弱,以及该选区的党派倾向(部分程度上由其库克党派投票指数(CPVI)指示)。每个席位的评级指示某个政党赢得该席位的优势的级别。

多数选举评级使用以下分级:

  • "tossup": 无优势
  • "tilt" (有时使用): 不如"lean"强的优势
  • "lean": 微弱优势
  • "likely" or "favored": 显著但可逆转的优势
  • "safe" or "solid": 几乎可以确定的胜利
选区 CPVI [1][2] 现任者 最近选举结果[3] 库克
10月30日
(2018年,下同)
[4]
I.E.
11月1日[5]
萨巴托
11月1日[6]
CNN
10月28日[7]
RCP
10月24日[8]
Daily Kos
11月2日[9]
538
11月2日[a][10]
Politico
10月26日[11]
获胜者[12]
阿拉斯加州单一国会选区 R+9 唐·揚 (R) 50.3% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R 唐·揚 (R)
亞利桑那州第1国会选区 R+2 Tom O'Halleran (D) 50.7% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D (D) Tom O'Halleran
亞利桑那州第2国会选区 R+1 Martha McSally (R) (退休) 57.0% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手) (D) Ann Kirkpatrick
亞利桑那州第6国会选区 R+9 大衛·斯維科特 (R) 62.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R 大衛·斯維科特 (R)
亞利桑那州第8国会选区 R+13 Debbie Lesko (R) 52.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Debbie Lesko (R)
亞利桑那州第9国会选区 D+4 克里斯滕·希尼玛 (D) (退休) 60.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Greg Stanton
阿肯色州第2国会选区 R+7 弗蘭奇·希爾 (R) 58.4% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R 弗蘭奇·希爾 (R)
加利福尼亞州第1国会选区 R+11 道格·拉馬爾法 (R) 59.1% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Doug LaMalfa (R)
加利福尼亞州第4国会选区 R+10 湯姆·麥克林托克 (R) 62.7% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R 湯姆·麥克林托克 (R)
加利福尼亞州第7国会选区 D+3 Ami Bera (D) 51.2% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Lean D (D) Ami Bera
加利福尼亞州第10国会选区 傑夫·鄧哈姆 (R) 51.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (易手) Tossup
加利福尼亞州第16国会选区 D+9 Jim Costa (D) 58.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Jim Costa
加利福尼亞州第21国会选区 D+5 大衛·瓦拉道 (R) 56.7% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R David Valadao (R)
加利福尼亞州第22国会选区 R+8 Devin Nunes (R) 67.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Devin Nunes (R)
加利福尼亞州第24国会选区 D+7 Salud Carbajal (D) 53.4% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Salud Carbajal
加利福尼亞州第25国会选区 Steve Knight (R) 53.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手)
加利福尼亞州第39国会选区 Ed Royce (R) (退休) 57.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
加利福尼亞州第45国会选区 R+3 Mimi Walters (R) 58.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup
加利福尼亞州第48国会选区 R+4 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 58.3% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup
加利福尼亞州第49国会选区 R+1 Darrell Issa (R) (退休) 50.3% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手)
加利福尼亞州第50国会选区 R+11 Duncan D. Hunter (R) 63.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Duncan Hunter (R)
科羅拉多州第3国会选区 R+6 Scott Tipton (R) 54.6% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Scott Tipton (R)
科羅拉多州第6国会选区 D+2 Mike Coffman (R) 50.9% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) (D) Jason Crow
康涅狄格州第5国会选区 D+2 Elizabeth Esty (D) (退休) 58.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Jahana Hayes
佛罗里达州第6国会选区 R+7 空缺 58.6% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Michael Waltz (R)
佛罗里达州第7国会选区 Stephanie Murphy (D) 51.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D (D) Stephanie Murphy
佛罗里达州第13国会选区 D+2 Charlie Crist (D) 51.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D (D) Charlie Crist
佛罗里达州第15国会选区 R+6 Dennis A. Ross (R) (退休) 57.5% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Ross Spano (R)
佛罗里达州第16国会选区 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 59.8% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Vern Buchanan (R)
佛罗里达州第18国会选区 R+5 Brian Mast (R) 53.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Brian Mast (R)
佛罗里达州第25国会选区 R+4 Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 62.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
佛罗里达州第26国会选区 D+6 Carlos Curbelo (R) 53.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup (D) Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
佛罗里达州第27国会选区 D+5 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (退休) 54.9% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Tossup (D) Donna Shalala
喬治亞州第6国会选区 R+8 Karen Handel (R) 51.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R (D) Lucy McBath
喬治亞州第7国会选区 R+9 Rob Woodall (R) 60.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R
伊利諾州第6国会选区 R+2 Peter Roskam (R) 59.2% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
伊利諾州第12国会选区 R+5 Mike Bost (R) 54.3% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
伊利諾州第13国会选区 R+3 Rodney Davis (R) 59.7% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
伊利諾州第14国会选区 R+5 Randy Hultgren (R) 59.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
伊利諾州第17国会选区 D+3 Cheri Bustos (D) 60.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
印第安納州第2国会选区 R+11 Jackie Walorski (R) 59.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R
印第安納州第9国会选区 R+13 Trey Hollingsworth (R) 54.1% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
艾奧瓦州第1国会选区 D+1 Rod Blum (R) 53.7% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Safe D (易手) Lean D (易手)
艾奧瓦州第2国会选区 D+1 Dave Loebsack (D) 53.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
艾奧瓦州第3国会选区 R+1 David Young (R) 53.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup
艾奧瓦州第4国会选区 R+11 Steve King (R) 61.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
堪薩斯州第2国会选区 R+10 Lynn Jenkins (R) (退休) 60.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup
堪薩斯州第3国会选区 R+4 Kevin Yoder (R) 51.3% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
堪薩斯州第4国会选区 R+15 Ron Estes (R) 52.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
肯塔基州第6国会选区 R+9 Andy Barr (R) 61.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
緬因州第2国会选区 R+2 Bruce Poliquin (R) 54.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup
馬利蘭州第6国会选区 D+6 John Delaney (D) (退休) 56.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
麻薩諸塞州第9国会选区 D+4 Bill Keating (D) 55.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
密芝根州第1国会选区 R+9 Jack Bergman (R) 54.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
密芝根州第2国会选区 R+9 Bill Huizenga (R) 62.6% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
密芝根州第3国会选区 R+6 Justin Amash (R) 59.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
密芝根州第5国会选区 D+5 Dan Kildee (D) 61.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D
密芝根州第6国会选区 R+4 Fred Upton (R) 58.7% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
密芝根州第7国会选区 R+7 Tim Walberg (R) 55.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R
密芝根州第8国会选区 R+4 Mike Bishop (R) 56.0% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
密芝根州第11国会选区 R+4 Dave Trott (R) (退休) 52.9% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
明尼蘇達州第1国会选区 R+5 Tim Walz (D) (退休) 50.3% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
明尼蘇達州第2国会选区 R+2 Jason Lewis (R) 47.0% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
明尼蘇達州第3国会选区 D+1 Erik Paulsen (R) 56.7% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Tossup Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
明尼蘇達州第7国会选区 R+12 Collin Peterson (D) 52.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
明尼蘇達州第8国会选区 R+4 Rick Nolan (D) (退休) 50.2% D Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Lean R (易手) Likely R (易手) Lean R (易手)
密蘇里州第2国会选区 R+8 Ann Wagner (R) 58.5% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
蒙大拿州单一国会选区 R+11 Greg Gianforte (R) 49.9% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
內布拉斯加州第2国会选区 R+4 Don Bacon (R) 48.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R
內華達州第2国会选区 R+7 Mark Amodei (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
內華達州第3国会选区 R+2 Jacky Rosen (D) (退休) 47.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D
內華達州第4国会选区 D+3 Ruben Kihuen (D) (退休) 48.5% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
新罕布什爾州第1国会选区 R+2 Carol Shea-Porter (D) (退休) 44.3% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
新罕布什爾州第2国会选区 D+2 Ann McLane Kuster (D) 49.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
新澤西州第2国会选区 R+1 Frank LoBiondo (R) (退休) 59.2% R Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手)
新澤西州第3国会选区 R+2 Tom MacArthur (R) 59.3% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
新澤西州第4国会选区 R+8 Chris Smith (R) 63.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R
新澤西州第5国会选区 R+3 Josh Gottheimer (D) 51.1% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Safe D Likely D
新澤西州第7国会选区 R+3 Leonard Lance (R) 54.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (易手) Tossup
新澤西州第11国会选区 R+3 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) (退休) 58.0% R Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
新墨西哥州第1国会选区 D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) (退休) 65.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
新墨西哥州第2国会选区 R+6 Steve Pearce (R) (退休) 62.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R
紐約州第1国会选区 R+5 Lee Zeldin (R) 58.2% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
紐約州第2国会选区 R+3 Peter King (R) 57.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R
紐約州第3国会选区 D+1 Thomas Suozzi (D) 52.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
紐約州第11国会选区 R+3 Dan Donovan (R) 61.5% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
紐約州第18国会选区 R+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.6% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D
紐約州第19国会选区 R+2 John Faso (R) 54.0% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
紐約州第21国会选区 R+4 Elise Stefanik (R) 61.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
紐約州第22国会选区 R+6 Claudia Tenney (R) 46.5% R Tossup Tilt D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
紐約州第23国会选区 R+6 Tom Reed (R) 57.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
紐約州第24国会选区 D+3 John Katko (R) 60.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R
紐約州第27国会选区 R+11 Chris Collins (R) 67.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
北卡羅萊納州第2国会选区 R+7 George Holding (R) 56.7% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup
北卡羅萊納州第6国会选区 R+9 Mark Walker (R) 59.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
北卡羅萊納州第7国会选区 R+9 David Rouzer (R) 60.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
北卡羅萊納州第8国会选区 R+8 Richard Hudson (R) 58.8% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R
北卡羅萊納州第9国会选区 R+8 Robert Pittenger (R) (未能重获提名) 58.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
北卡羅萊納州第13国会选区 R+6 Ted Budd (R) 56.1% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
俄亥俄州第1国会选区 R+5 Steve Chabot (R) 59.2% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup
俄亥俄州第7国会选区 R+12 Bob Gibbs (R) 64.0% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
俄亥俄州第10国会选区 R+4 Mike Turner (R) 64.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
俄亥俄州第12国会选区 R+7 Troy Balderson (R) 50.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
俄亥俄州第14国会选区 R+5 David Joyce (R) 62.6% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
俄亥俄州第15国会选区 R+7 Steve Stivers (R) 66.2% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
俄亥俄州第16国会选区 R+8 Jim Renacci (R) (退休) 65.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
奧克拉荷馬州第5国会选区 R+10 Steve Russell (R) 57.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
俄勒岡州第2国会选区 R+11 Greg Walden (R) 71.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
俄勒岡州第5国会选区 Kurt Schrader (D) 53.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D
賓夕凡尼亞州第1国会选区 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) (新选区) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
賓夕凡尼亞州第5国会选区 D+13 空缺 (新选区) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手)
賓夕凡尼亞州第6国会选区 D+2 Ryan Costello (R) (退休) (新选区) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手)
賓夕凡尼亞州第7国会选区 D+1 空缺 (新选区) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
賓夕凡尼亞州第8国会选区 R+1 Matt Cartwright (D) (新选区) Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
賓夕凡尼亞州第10国会选区 R+6 Scott Perry (R) (新选区) Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
賓夕凡尼亞州第11国会选区 R+14 Lloyd Smucker (R) (新选区) Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
賓夕凡尼亞州第14国会选区 R+14 Conor Lamb (D) (在第十七选区参选) (新选区) Likely R (易手) Likely R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手) Likely R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手) Safe R (易手)
賓夕凡尼亞州第16国会选区 R+8 Mike Kelly (R) (新选区) Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R
賓夕凡尼亞州第17国会选区 R+3 Keith Rothfus (R) (新选区) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Likely D (易手) Safe D (易手) Likely D (易手) (D) Conor Lamb
南卡羅萊納州第1国会选区 R+10 Mark Sanford (R) (未能重获提名) 58.6% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R (D) Joe Cunningham
德克薩斯州第2国会选区 R+11 Ted Poe (R) (退休) 60.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第3国会选区 R+13 Sam Johnson (R) (退休) 61.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
德克薩斯州第6国会选区 R+9 Joe Barton (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第7国会选区 R+7 John Culberson (R) 56.2% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
德克薩斯州第10国会选区 R+9 Michael T. McCaul (R) 57.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
德克薩斯州第21国会选区 R+10 Lamar Smith (R) (退休) 57.0% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第22国会选区 R+10 Pete Olson (R) 59.5% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第23国会选区 R+1 Will Hurd (R) 48.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
德克薩斯州第24国会选区 R+9 Kenny Marchant (R) 56.2% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
德克薩斯州第25国会选区 R+11 Roger Williams (R) 58.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
德克薩斯州第31国会选区 R+10 John Carter (R) 58.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
德克薩斯州第32国会选区 R+5 Pete Sessions (R) 71.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup
猶他州第4国会选区 R+13 Mia Love (R) 53.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Lean R
弗吉尼亞州第2国会选区 R+3 Scott Taylor (R) 61.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup
弗吉尼亞州第5国会选区 R+6 Tom Garrett (R) (退休) 58.2% R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R
弗吉尼亞州第7国会选区 R+6 Dave Brat (R) 57.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
弗吉尼亞州第10国会选区 D+1 Barbara Comstock (R) 52.7% R Lean D (易手) Tilt D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Lean D (易手) Likely D (易手) Lean D (易手)
華盛頓州第3国会选区 R+4 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 61.8% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
華盛頓州第5国会选区 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 59.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
華盛頓州第8国会选区 Dave Reichert (R) (退休) 60.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (易手) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
西弗吉尼亞州第2国会选区 R+17 阿萊克斯·穆尼 (R) 58.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R


西弗吉尼亞州第3国会选区 R+23 空缺 67.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup
威斯康辛州第1国会选区 R+5 保羅·萊恩 (R) (退休) 65.0% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
威斯康辛州第3国会选区 榮·肯德 (D) 98.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D
威斯康辛州第6国会选区 R+8 格倫·格羅斯曼 (R) 57.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Lean R Lean R
威斯康辛州第8国会选区 R+7 邁克·加拉格 (R) 62.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
选区 CPVI 现任者 最近选举结果 库克 I.E. 萨巴托 CNN RCP Daily Kos 538 Politico 获胜者

一般选票民调[编辑]

以下是针对应答者在即将到来的选举中的政党倾向开展的民调。[13]来自追踪民调(Tracking Poll)的重复数据不被收录。例如从2017年5月19日开始追踪的易索普/路透社民调的采样周期是五天,因此每六个民调结果中这里只收录一个。如果一支民调同时包括来自成年人及来自注册选民或可能选民的结果,此处只列出从选民中抽样的结果。


Notes[编辑]

  1. ^ 反映其预测模型的"经典"版本(考虑经调整的民调数据、相似选区的民调数据以及非民调的“基本要素”)。

References[编辑]

  1. ^ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally. Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. Cook Political Report. April 11, 2018 [April 11, 2018]. 
  2. ^ Wasserman, David. New Pennsylvania Map Is a Major Boost for Democrats. Cook Political Report. April 11, 2018 [April 11, 2018]. 
  3. ^ 2016 House Election Results. Politico. December 13, 2016 [February 14, 2017]. 
  4. ^ 2018 House Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. [October 30, 2018]. 
  5. ^ 2018 House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. [November 1, 2018]. 
  6. ^ 2018 House. Sabato's Crystal Ball. [November 1, 2018]. 
  7. ^ CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move towards Democrats. CNN. [October 28, 2018]. 
  8. ^ Battle for the House 2018. RCP. [October 24, 2018]. 
  9. ^ Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. Daily Kos Elections. [October 30, 2018]. 
  10. ^ Silver, Nate. 2018 House Forecast. FiveThirtyEight. August 16, 2018 [November 2, 2018]. 
  11. ^ Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election. POLITICO. [October 9, 2018]. 
  12. ^ House Election Results: Democrats Take Control. 纽约时报. November 7, 2018 [November 7, 2018]. 
  13. ^ Congress Generic Ballot Polls. FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. [January 4, 2018]. , see downloadable data.