摘要

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Original upload date (on English Wikipedia): 2013-03-24

Based on article from Martin Wolf, cited below.

Understanding the chart

This chart is based on an article and graphic from economist Martin Wolf. Wolf explained in July 2012 that government fiscal balance is one of three major financial sectoral balances in the U.S. economy, the others being the foreign financial sector and the private financial sector. The sum of the surpluses or deficits across these three sectors must be zero by definition. The three data series are:

1. Foreign sector financial balance: This is the capital account. A foreign financial surplus or capital account surplus exists because capital is imported (net) to fund the U.S. trade deficit. To finance imports greater than exports, capital must be imported by definition; this is called a surplus.
2. Private sector financial balance: This is the difference between private savings (mostly by consumers) and private investment (mostly by businesses). One way to think about an economy is that consumers save and businesses take the savings and invest it. The two figures tend to move in tandem. However, if consumers are saving but businesses are not investing, a surplus develops. In the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, savings increased but investment declined dramatically, moving this balance from deficit into surplus.
3. Government sector financial balance: This is the difference between government revenues less spending. It would be the sum of federal, state and local budget surpluses or deficits.

By definition, with the first two in surplus there must therefore exist a government budget deficit so all three net to zero. For example, the government budget deficit in 2011 was approximately 10% GDP (8.6% GDP of which was federal), offsetting a capital surplus of 4% GDP and a private sector surplus of 6% GDP.^[1][2] Wolf argued that the sudden shift in the private sector from deficit to surplus forced the government balance into deficit, writing: "The financial balance of the private sector shifted towards surplus by the almost unbelievable cumulative total of 11.2 per cent of gross domestic product between the third quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2009, which was when the financial deficit of US government (federal and state) reached its peak...No fiscal policy changes explain the collapse into massive fiscal deficit between 2007 and 2009, because there was none of any importance. The collapse is explained by the massive shift of the private sector from financial deficit into surplus or, in other words, from boom to bust."^[3] Wolf also explained that if the government budget deficit had been forced to zero with the same capital surplus, the private sector income (and thus savings) would have fallen dramatically (likely a Depression) to bring that sector back into deficit, such that all three sectors would net to zero: "There is absolutely no doubt what would have happened if the government had been unwilling to borrow when borrowing by the private sector collapsed: we would have seen a huge depression. Fortunately, that did not happen. Government borrowed. Of course, that did not fully offset the collapse in private borrowing. But it helped."^[4] An up-to-date version of the chart (directionally correct but not exactly) can be viewed here: FRED Database-Chart of Financial Sector Balances

As a formula

The above expressed as an equation or mathematical identity: C+G+T = 0.

• C: Private sector financial balance (+ for private sector surplus, where savings is greater than investment, - for private sector deficit, where savings is less than investment)
• G: Government sector financial balance (+ for budget surplus, - for budget deficit)
• T: Foreign sector financial balance (+ for capital surplus or trade deficit, - for capital deficit or trade surplus)

Note that if you define the foreign sector balance instead as the current account balance (i.e., trade deficit is a - and trade surplus is a +), the formula becomes C+G-T=0.^[5]

The graphic can also be describing using the Keynesian equilibrium formula, where injections equals withdrawals:

• Investment + Government + Exports = Savings + Taxes + Imports
• I + G + X = S + T + M

Rearranging using algebra to show the data series in the graphic:

• (G-T) + (X-M) = (S-I)
• 0 = (S-I) + (T-G) - (X-M)
• S-I is the private sector balance, a positive amount as savings has exceeded investment since 2009.
• T-G is the government sector balance, a negative number as the government has run deficits from 2002-2015.
• X-M is the foreign sector, a negative number (trade deficit or capital surplus). Since the formula is subtracting this amount, we graph the inverse (*-1) so it appears as a positive number in the graph.

Note that this equation holds at economic equilibrium only, but is useful for illustrating the concepts.

Creating the chart

Via BEA (Exact)

The source data is the BEA Integrated Macroeconomic accounts^[6], table S.2.a.^[7]

• Private: Households (Row 39, 40) + Business (41, 42)
• Government: Federal (Row 43) + State and local (44)
• Foreign (Rest of the World): Row 45 (statistical discrepancy NIPA) and Row 46.

I used nominal GDP data from FRED for each year to make the GDP conversion, using the Q4 annualized number.

Table S.2.a "Selected Aggregates for Total Economy and Sectors" along with FA codes appears in this report, in Appendix B.^[8][9]

The New Policy Institute published a 2011 paper that explains how the balances can be computed with a separation of private into households and business, along with a helpful graph and the FA codes used in the computation.^[10]

Via FRED

• Three line annual: This FRED graph includes the foreign sector (blue), private (green) and government (red) via FRED. The statistical discrepancy is included with the rest of the world/foreign sector.^[11]
• Three line quarterly.^[12]
• Four line annual splits the private sector into household and business components.^[13]
• Four line quarterly.^[14]

Note that when these charts are downloaded, a horizontal sum of each time period should roughly net to zero.

Understanding the private sector financial balance

Economist Paul Krugman also explained in December 2011 the causes of the sizable shift from private sector deficit to surplus in the U.S.: "This huge move into surplus reflects the end of the housing bubble, a sharp rise in household saving, and a slump in business investment due to lack of customers."^[15] The private sector financial balance is the net of the savings and investment lines shown in the "Private Sector Financial Surplus" chart at right. In other words, if you graphed the expression "Private savings - Business investment" as one line and as a % GDP, you would get in the blue line in the "Sectoral Financial Balances in the U.S. Economy" chart.

References

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