進口替代

進口替代工業化政策（英語：Import substitution industrialization）是一種經濟和貿易政策，提倡用本國工業產品替代進口產品，以實現工業化。進口替代的目標包括：一、先在國內生產簡單的消費品，替代此前需要進口的同類產品；二、逐漸開始在國內生產更複雜的產品；三、開始出口工業製成品，並繼續實現工業化^[1]。

進口替代政策自十八世紀以來便有倡導者，包括美國的亞歷山大·漢密爾頓^[2]，在二十世紀的發展經濟學中也多有推崇者，如阿根廷經濟學家勞爾·普雷維什（Raúl Prebisch）^[3]。拉丁美洲的巴西、阿根廷和墨西哥等國於1930至1960年代曾推行進口替代工業化政策。亞洲及非洲的部分國家也曾推行此政策^[1]。

內容

進口替代的支持者認為，在傳統經濟學的自由貿易和比較優勢模式下，後發國家將被桎梏於低附加值的農業出口等產業，而永遠無法工業化^[4]^[5]。普雷維什-辛格假說指出，世界貿易被分為「中心」和「邊緣」。中心經濟體出口工業品，需求的收入彈性為正，既隨着人的收入提高，對工業品的需求也會提高^[4]。因此技術進步會導致工業經濟體的利潤和工資提高。而邊緣經濟體出口農業品及資源，需求的收入彈性為負，則永遠無法工業化^[4]。因此，進口替代的支持者認為政府應該通過關稅、進口准入制度、匯率、政府投資等手段支持幼稚產業（infant industry）發展，確保進口產品為資本品而非消費品^[6]^[7]。

普雷維什也同時指出了進口替代政策的局限性，包括會導致實際收入的減少、可能會導致國家無限制的保護低效產業、及政府可能會無差別實施保護政策，反而導致發展中國家無法獲得所需的資本品^[4]^[8]。至1960 年代，普雷維什等經濟學家已經開始指出拉丁美洲的進口替代政策矯枉過正^[9]^[10]，並有經濟學家指出台灣、香港、南韓、以色列等地的出口導向政策更為可行^[11]。

參見

參考文獻

^ ^1.0 ^1.1 Bussell, Jennifer. "Import substitution industrialization". Encyclopedia Britannica, 19 Apr. 2018, https://www.britannica.com/topic/import-substitution-industrialization. Accessed 11 April 2021.
^ Chang, Ha-Joon (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press.
^ Ascher, William. 1996. The Evolution of Postwar Doctrines in Development Economics. History of Political Economy 28 (supplement): 312–36.
^ ^4.0 ^4.1 ^4.2 ^4.3 Prebisch, Raúl. 1950. The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations.
^ Singer, H. W. 1953. Obstacles to Economic Development. Social Research 20: 19–31.
^ FitzGerald, E. V. K. 2000. ECLA and the Theory of Import Substituting Industrialization in Latin America. In An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Latin America, vol. 3, Industrialization and the State in Latin America: The Postwar Years, edited by Enrique Cárdenas, José Antonio Ocampo, and Rosemary Thorp. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
^ Singer, Hans. 1986. Raúl Prebisch and His Advocacy of Import Substitution. Development and SouthSouth Cooperation 2: 1–5.
^ Dosman, Edgar J. 2008. The Life and Times of Raúl Prebisch, 1901–1986. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
^ Prebisch, Raúl. 1964. Towards a New Trade Policy for Development. New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
^ Lewis, W. Arthur. 1966. Development Planning: The Essentials of Economic Policy. London: George Allen & Unwin.
^ Keesing, Donald B. 1967. Outward-Looking Policies and Economic Development. Economic Journal 77: 303–20.

[:0-1] 1.0 ^1.1 Bussell, Jennifer. "Import substitution industrialization". Encyclopedia Britannica, 19 Apr. 2018, https://www.britannica.com/topic/import-substitution-industrialization. Accessed 11 April 2021.

[Kicking_Away_the_Ladder:_Development_Strategy_in_Historical_Perspective2-2] Chang, Ha-Joon (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press.

[3] Ascher, William. 1996. The Evolution of Postwar Doctrines in Development Economics. History of Political Economy 28 (supplement): 312–36.

[:1-4] 4.0 ^4.1 ^4.2 ^4.3 Prebisch, Raúl. 1950. The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations.

[5] Singer, H. W. 1953. Obstacles to Economic Development. Social Research 20: 19–31.

[6] FitzGerald, E. V. K. 2000. ECLA and the Theory of Import Substituting Industrialization in Latin America. In An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Latin America, vol. 3, Industrialization and the State in Latin America: The Postwar Years, edited by Enrique Cárdenas, José Antonio Ocampo, and Rosemary Thorp. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

[7] Singer, Hans. 1986. Raúl Prebisch and His Advocacy of Import Substitution. Development and SouthSouth Cooperation 2: 1–5.

[8] Dosman, Edgar J. 2008. The Life and Times of Raúl Prebisch, 1901–1986. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.

[9] Prebisch, Raúl. 1964. Towards a New Trade Policy for Development. New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

[10] Lewis, W. Arthur. 1966. Development Planning: The Essentials of Economic Policy. London: George Allen & Unwin.

[11] Keesing, Donald B. 1967. Outward-Looking Policies and Economic Development. Economic Journal 77: 303–20.

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