气候变化对鸟类的影响
鸟类与其他动物群体一样,同样会受到人为导致的全球暖化影响。迄今人们已进行过大量研究气候变化对鸟类的影响(英语:Climate change and birds)的工作。[7]其中包括追踪数十年来物种生命周期变化以应对在变化中的世界,[8]对不同进化压力作用做评估,[9]甚至拿收藏于博物馆中的标本与现代鸟类进行比较,以追踪其外观和身体结构的变化。[10]气候变化对鸟类的直接和间接影响,其引起的变化范围于预测它们的将来有非常重要的作用,可为保育工作提供重要的资讯,在最大限度内减少气候变化导致的物种灭绝风险。[11]
气候变化缓解方案也会对鸟类产生不同的影响。据估计,即使风能发电对环境的影响会对鸟类产生威胁,仍然比持续的全球暖化效应所产生的要小很多。[12]
成因
[编辑]自第一次工业革命开始以来的气候变化已导致地表气温升高约1.1°C (2.0°F)。由于未来温室气体排放和缓解行动的程度会决定届时的气候变化情景,如果全球采取迅速和全面的缓解措施,暖化可能会比目前的水平再增加不到0.4°C(0.72°F)(即巴黎协定设定的总升温控制在1.5°C(2.7°F)以内)目标),若是持续大量排放温室气体,到本世纪末的升温程度就会达到3.5°C (6.3°F) 左右(较工业化前平均水平升温4.5°C (8.1°F))。 [13]:21
对鸟类的影响
[编辑]身体变化
[编辑]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/25/Kiat-2019-passerine-plumage.png/220px-Kiat-2019-passerine-plumage.png)
鸟类是鸟纲中的一种恒温脊椎动物,其特征是身长羽毛、有无牙的喙状下颚、卵生(透过硬蛋壳蛋孵化)、具高代谢率、有四腔心脏和坚固而轻的骨架。
气候变化已经由促进鸟类羽毛变化而改变其中一些外观。透过现代雀形目幼鸟与博物馆中1800年代同一物种幼鸟标本的比较,显示现代这些鸟类于生命周期中的早期就完成幼鸟羽毛转变为成年羽毛,而且雌性比雄性更早完成。[10]此外,蓝山雀的羽毛是蓝色与黄色相间,但针对法国地中海地区所做的一项研究,显示这些对比色仅在2005年至2019年的几年之内就变得没那么明亮和强烈。[14][15]
于美国芝加哥所做的一项研究显示鸟类小腿骨的长度(身体尺寸的指标)已平均缩短2.4%,翅膀则延长1.3%。在亚马逊雨林中部地区,鸟类的质量(体型指标)每十年减少2%,翅膀长度每十年增加1%,这与气温与降水变化有关。这类生物形态学上的趋势可能是依循演化中伯格曼法则的一例。[16][17][18][19]整个欧亚大陆的雪雀的体型在过去的100年里,体型变得越来越小,颜色也变得越来越深。[20]
气候变化导致的气温上升也被证明会让许多候鸟的体型变小。[21]在首次目的在确定气候变化与认知和表型反应之间具有直接联系的研究中,研究人员发现大脑较小的鸟类的体型较大脑较大的,其体型减小更为明显。[21]体型减小是对气温升高的普遍反应,因为体型较小更易散热,有助于应对热度所引起的压力。身体和大脑尺寸的减少也会导致认知和竞争能力下降,让小型鸟类更易成为掠食者的目标。[21]研究人员所做的另一项研究,比较1,176种鸟类的大脑尺寸,发现在幼鸟身上花费更多资源的物种,成长至成年后会有较大尺寸的大脑。[22]孵化后喂养幼崽的时间越长,可延长大脑发育的时间,而产生更聪明、大脑更大的后代。气候变化导致的环境变化将会影响鸟类获得足够食物来维持自己的大脑和养育幼崽的能力,发生大脑尺寸缩小的结果。因此,大脑更大、更聪明的鸟类,例如新喀鸦就有更好应对气候变化带来的挑战。[22]
物候学
[编辑]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c9/Saalfeld_2021_bird_phenology.png/220px-Saalfeld_2021_bird_phenology.png)
对于许多物种而言,气候变化已导致物候学上的不匹配,这是物种年度周期中某个方面的时间不再与另一方面保持一致的现象,而损害此物种的进化适应度。物种于繁殖和迁徙等事件期间会消耗掉非常大的能量,且通常只在整个年度周期中的短暂时期内发生,而于此时的季节性猎物可用性也会最高。但这些猎物对气候变化的反应速度可能会与鸟类生命阶段不同。[24]一些常见的物种,如斑姬鹟,可透过捕捉代替物(如飞虫和蜘蛛)来喂养其后代,以弥补其繁殖时间和其首选猎物(毛虫)种群规模之间的不匹配,但因为不同猎物的能源与营养成分有别,而导致斑姫鹟后代体重减轻,但仍能避免繁殖成功率大幅下降。[25]由于北极气候变化幅度大,[23]导致北极的涉禽不匹配问题更加严重,甚至美国阿拉斯加州在2016年约有9,000只海鹦和其他涉禽因饥饿而死亡等事件。[26]长途迁徙的候鸟往往会对物候不匹配更加敏感,因为它们迁徙得越远,就越难侦测到繁殖环境的变化,也越来越无法于采集食物和繁殖时做调整。目前在春季迁徙期间已发生更多的物候不匹配情况,导致具有更大不匹配或物候异步性的物种种群数量下降,具有较少气候变化敏感性的物种就无需调整迁徙模式。[9]如果由于天气变暖,鸟类主要食物来源的最高可用性时间在在其迁徙时间之前发生,这类鸟类就会错过采集资源的时机。[27]
过去50年来观测到鸟类物候已发生变化以作应对,例如春季迁徙时间的延长。不同的物种有不同的迁徙触发因素,迁移模式也因此有不同的变化,但对于许多物种来说,短期内温度与其他无法解释的迁移时间变化之间存在相关性。一般来说,会最早迁徙的个体,时间会更为提前,而最晚迁移的个体,时间与以前相似或是较为延迟。[7][28]北美洲的林柳莺提供一个显著的例子,在历经为时60年的数据分析显示,早春气温每升高一次,它们的迁徙似乎就会提前0.65天。[8]关于这种转变是否代表演化调适变化或是表型可塑性变化,尚存在一些科学争论。换句话说,仅仅因为一个物种中有许多个体将其物候改变,并不代表这种变化一定会帮助这类个体获得更高的繁殖成功率,并导致下一代的行为永久变化,因为个体表型的变化可能会不合时宜。此于气候变化时尤其重要,因为其短期变率使得正确的时间调整变得更加困难,并且个体的多代可能会以相同的方式对此类环境变化做出反应,但并未产生最终的繁殖利益。[29]一些鸟类的产蛋日期延后和提前春季迁徙时间的物种展现出更积极的种群数目趋势(例如英国的一些雀形目鸟类),但提供的仅为间接证据。[9]普通燕鸥是迄今为止少数几个因面临提前迁徙压力(27年之间已提前9.3天)而被证实具有遗传性的物种之一。[9]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Leucistic_great_tit.jpg/220px-Leucistic_great_tit.jpg)
欧亚大山雀是追踪物候变化中复杂性的一个显著例子。 2006年,由于它们的首选繁殖季节和毛虫(其首选食物来源)的产卵高峰期之间存在>10天的不匹配,而导致这种鸟类有观测到的种群数量下降。[30]因此在毛虫族群数量达到顶峰的季节早期所饲养的雏鸟比在毛虫繁殖季节后期饲养的具有更好的生理状况,这情况应是进化的驱动力。[31]但毛虫数量不仅受到气候的影响,当地自营生物(如橡树)的物理状况往往对毛虫数量更为重要,继而对于欧亚大山雀产卵繁殖有最大的作用。[32]然而在2021年,观测中大山雀物候虽然继续演化,但由于春末变暖速度减弱,自2006年起毛虫数量的峰值变化要小得多,而导致大山雀的物候不匹配已大幅低于从前,表示调适成功,但将来若发生暖化,将会再次把这种不匹配加剧。如果《巴黎协定》得到签署国忠实履行,升温峰值控制在1.5°C (2.7°F) 或2°C (3.6°F)之内,这种不匹配预定会在2050年左右达到峰值,然后物种的调适应对会再次下降。预计在代表性浓度路径4.5(RCP4.5)和RCP8.5这两种更为严重的气候变化情景下,平均物候不匹配(差异日数)于本世纪末将再次达到10天,甚至达到近乎史无前例的15天。[33]
极端扰动事件
[编辑]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/Extreme_weather_under_global_warming.svg/300px-Extreme_weather_under_global_warming.svg.png)
除气温持续升高和降水模式变化之外,气候变化还会增加极端天气事件的发生频率,而这类事件对受其影响的物种尤其有害。短嘴黑凤头鹦鹉是澳大利亚西南部的一个物种,仅在两次极端天气事件(2009年10月至2010年3月期间的严重热浪和严重冰雹)之后,其种群数量就大幅减少。[4]在欧洲,黄爪隼似乎已适应持续的变暖,但据观察,它们在极端干旱的月份里会失去更多的后代。[34]
已知气候变化会导致植被干燥并减少积雪范围,而会增加世界许多地区发生野火的风险和严重程度。[35][36]野火会破坏某些鸟类栖息地:2019年-2020年澳洲丛林大火之后,于新南威尔士州海岸的鸸鹋亚群被认为面临高风险。[37]2020年美国西部野火,导致决明子交嘴雀仅有的两个据点之一遭到大火吞噬。[1]虽然大多数鸟类可在栖息地遭到破坏的情况下立即飞走而幸存,但它们仍然会受到野火烟雾的严重影响。对于候鸟来说,这是一个特别令人担忧的问题,因为它们在迁徙途中易在充满烟雾的地区受害。 于2020年,"至少有美国五个州和墨西哥四个州有数十万甚至可能多达100万只鸟类死亡",其中主要是迁徙物种。[38] 这类"史无前例"的事件与野火烟雾有关联。[39][40]
涉禽栖息地经常受到海平面上升的负面影响,这不仅是由于海岸持续受海岸侵蚀作用而退化,也是由于会突然发生风暴潮和其他极端事件频率增加的结果。预计到本世纪晚些时候,美国东岸的海平面会上升到足够高的程度,一场大型热带气旋就会将该地区笛鸻栖息地中的95%淹没,而其将栖息地转移到内陆的能力又会受到未来海岸线开发的限制。[3]这个物种于美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的族群也面临风险,到2100年,栖息地仅因逐渐淹没就有丧失16%的可能,且存在极端风暴和人类进一步开发海岸线的风险。[41]讽刺的是,内陆笛鸻种群可能会受益于气候变化引发的更强烈洪水,因为它们筑巢所在的开阔沙洲只有定期受洪水淹没才能避免植被过度生长,最好是每四年发生一次,这种情况在早期大量欧洲人到美洲殖民之前是常态,但现在由于为保护人们财产而执行的海岸线稳定工作,次数已减少到每二十年发生一次。因此,气候变化后引发的洪水,可能会恢复该物种的历史常态,但也会因气候变化,而在某些情况下导致过度洪水,或是引发干旱的风险。[42]
影响范围
[编辑]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Bateman_2020_na_birds_shift.jpg/220px-Bateman_2020_na_birds_shift.jpg)
气候变化会让多种鸟类的筑巢条件变得难以承受。例如涉禽在沙地筑巢,而沿海的黄嘴燕鸥和笛鸻种群已知会遭受沙地温度升高和有时变得太热的影响,[43]而沙漠鸟类在前所未有的炎热天气下会因脱水而死亡。[44][45]预计许多鸟类的活动范围将因此改变,因为"气候变化迫使物种迁移、调适或是死亡。"[46]例如人们观测到幼小的家麻雀会比以往离开父母的巢穴更远,主要是应对气温升高。[46]气候变化也与观测到的锈色黑鹂数量下降和活动范围缩小有关联,锈色黑鹂鸟是种以前常见,但目前变得脆弱的北美洲物种。[47]分布范围变化通常是往较高纬度地区迁移,[7]有黑尾鹬的两个亚洲亚种,预计它们更比以往接近北极点处。其整体栖息地可能会急剧缩小至目前面积的16%左右,所有先前的高度适宜区域都会消失。[5]鸟类除向极地方向迁移之外,山区内的鸟类也往气候较凉爽的高海拔地区移动。预计印度的1,091个物种中有66-73%将因气候变化而往高处或是往北迁移。其中大约有60%的物种分布范围会缩小,剩余的分布范围则会扩大。[48]
除气温上升之外,气候变化也会透过降水量变化而影响鸟类的活动范围。例如,一些高山气候区的降雨量会增加,与气候变化对水循环影响的预测一致。这包括稀树草鹀和角百灵的一些栖息地,如果当地连续下雨超过两天,导致的每日雏鸟死亡率会较完全不下雨地区更高。[49]灰头知更鸟仅分布于澳大利亚昆士兰州东北部潮湿热带地区的雨林,也存在于新几内亚高地。经电脑模拟,这种鸟类适应较低的温度,只能在较高海拔地区找到这种条件,但它与其他物种不同的是它无法因气温升高而直接迁移到山上,否则在途中会遭受他们无法适应的过多降水。这些限制导致其特别容易受到未来气候变化的影响。[50]另一方面在北美洲,于高暖化情景下,预计柳鹟族群到2100年的数量将损失至少62% ,在中间情景下将损失36%,但在低暖化情景下可能不会发生任何损失(很大程度上是由于此种鸟类进化的缘故)。但如果未来发生干旱,会尤其对该物种的筑巢季节造成特别严重的影响,即使在低暖化情景下,最终也可能会失去大部分族群规模,而族群数量在较高温度的情况下,会有减少93%或>99%的可能。[51]
人类行为常与气候变化的影响相互作用。例如在南美洲草原,在高温情景下,预测到2080年坎波矿工会失去77-92%的栖地面积,在中间情景下,将失去68-74%的面积,由于缺乏这种鸟类的保护区,此情况尤其令人担忧。[52]由于气候变化,非洲白颈鸦在北非的分布范围有所缩小,但在南部非洲的分布范围却有所增加。[53]气候变化有利于南部非洲森林的发展(而非草原的发展),可提供更多的树木让它们筑巢。然而它们在非洲南部的分布范围和密度的增加也得益于电力基础设施,这些设施提供额外的筑巢和栖息地,可能会增加该物种的总体数量。[54]在北美洲,预计的鸟类范围变化被奥杜邦学会的专家描述为"令人难以置信"。一方面是所余适合栖息地的地理位置遥远,另一方面是因为其中有些是非迁徙物种(难以跨越自然屏障到达新的适宜栖息地),只能透过辅助迁徙措施才能实现迁徙,否则就会发生一种局部地区灭绝的后果。[11]
灭绝
[编辑]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/Bateman_2020_us_birds_risk.jpg/220px-Bateman_2020_us_birds_risk.jpg)
根据在2012年所做的估计,平均气温每升高一度,就会导致100至500种陆地鸟类灭绝。到 2100年,气温升高3.5°C (6.3°F)时,同一研究估计将有600至900种陆地鸟类灭绝,其中有89%会发生在热带。[55]于2013年发表的一项研究报告,估计包含在IUCN红色名录上有608-851种鸟类(6-9%) 极易受到气候变化的影响,而1,715-4,039种(17-41%) 鸟类目前尚未受到威胁,但未来有可能会因气候变化将会受到。[56]
一篇于2023年发表的论文,结论是到2100年,在高变暖SSP5-8.5情景下,由于更为干旱,有51.79%的鸟类将失去至少一些栖息地,但只有5.25%的鸟类仅因干旱就会失去一半以上的栖息地,而有1.29%的物种将失去整个栖息地。在“中间”SSP2-4.5情景下,这些数字会分别下降至38.65%、2.02%和0.95%,在高度缓解的SSP1-2.6情景下,这些数字会分别下降至22.83%、0.70%和0.49%。[57]
于2015年所做的预测,在高温RCP8.5情景,或是早期采电脑模拟的类似情景下,夏威夷的本土森林鸟类将因禽疟疾的传播而面临灭绝的威胁,但在“中间”RCP4情境下将能继续存在。[58]对于北美洲大陆的604种鸟类,与2020年从事的一向研究,所得结论是如果气温上升1.5°C (2.7°F),则有207种鸟类将有中度灭绝的脆弱性,47种鸟类则有高度灭绝的脆弱性。在2°C (3.6°F)情景时,数值变为198种具中度脆弱性和91中具高度脆弱性。在3°C(5.4°F)情景下,具高度脆弱性的 (205种) 高于中等脆弱性的 (140种)。如果把升温稳定在1.5°C(2.7°F)的情景,物种灭绝风险将降低76%,而有38%不再具脆弱性。[59][60][61]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d1/Southern_Yellow-billed_Hornbill%2C_Tockus_leucomelas_at_Mapungubwe_National_Park%2C_Limpopo%2C_South_Africa_%2818115941578%29.jpg/220px-Southern_Yellow-billed_Hornbill%2C_Tockus_leucomelas_at_Mapungubwe_National_Park%2C_Limpopo%2C_South_Africa_%2818115941578%29.jpg)
如果升温达到4.5°C (8.1°F),预计非洲南部的米奥木博林地将失去约86%的鸟类。[62]一项在2019年发表的估计,南部非洲喀拉哈里沙漠特有的鸟类(斑鸫鹛、黄嘴犀鸟和领伯劳)可能在本世纪末会几乎消失,或是仅存于东部边缘,取决于温室气体排放情况。估计气温不会高到彻底消灭鸟类,但仍会高到足以阻止它们维持足够的体重和能量进行繁殖。[63]到2022年,在沙漠最热的南部地区,黄嘴犀鸟的繁殖成功率已下降。预测这些特定亚群将在2027年消失。[64][65]同样的,人们发现到2070年有两种埃塞俄比亚鸟类 - 白尾燕和灰丛鸦将失去其中的68-84%,和>90%的分布区域。由于这些鸟类现有的地理分布已非常有限,表示即使在受控制气候变化情景下,它最终也可能因种群太小而无法支持存在,导致其呈现野外灭绝的现象。[66]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/Colony_of_aptenodytes_patagonicus.jpg/220px-Colony_of_aptenodytes_patagonicus.jpg)
气候变化缓解行动的影响
[编辑]从长远来看,透过缓解气候变化的影响对大多数鸟类有利。但缓解策略可能会产生更复杂的意外结果。有些可提供共同效益,例如森林管理可减少林木密度(降低火灾燃料供应)而增加鸟类栖息地。某些再生生物质的种植策略也会较传统农业做法增加整体物种多样性。[7]另一方面,潮汐能发电系统可能会对涉禽造成影响,[7]但目前采用这种再生能源的地点不多,因此研究很少。
风力发电厂以会对鸟类造成危险而闻名,有伤害白尾海雕和黄嘴天鹅等物种的纪录。这可能是鸟类视觉的问题,大多数的往前视力都不佳。如果]风机设计更加显眼,或安装在更适当的地点,可能会减少鸟类撞上风机轮叶的机会。[7]
估计美国每年有14万至50万只鸟类因撞击风机轮叶而亡,如果风力发电容量增加六倍,此一数字可能会增加到每年140万只。平均而言,北美大平原地区发生碰撞的频率最低,每年约发生2.92次/风机,西部和东部地区发生碰撞的频率较高(每年分别有4.72次/风机和6.86次/风机),而加利福尼亚州发生碰撞的频率最高,每年有7.85次/风机。 [74]
一般来说,较老的风电厂在装设风机时往往较少将鸟类因素列入考虑,因此在改进装设指南制定之前装设的,有较高的死亡率。[75]最新研究结果显示在印度卡纳塔卡邦,每台风机每年造成的死亡鸟类数目为0.26只(同时包括鸟类和蝙蝠)。[76]当有座海岸风力发电厂于东亚-澳大利西亚迁飞区上建立时,鸟类群落飞行模式在电厂运行一年后似乎已发生调整。[77]但据估计,即使是较老的风电厂,2009年产生每吉瓦时(GWh) 发电量而丧生的鸟类数量也不到0.4只,而以燃烧化石燃料的发电厂产生每吉瓦时(GWh) 发电量所造成的鸟类丧生数量就超过5只。[12]
参见
[编辑]参考文献
[编辑]- ^ 1.0 1.1 Nearly Half of the Cassia Crossbill's Population Could Be Lost After Wildfire. Audubon. 2020-10-14 [2020-10-26]. (原始内容存档于2023-10-02) (英语).
- ^ Strycker, Noah; Wethington, Michael; Borowicz, Alex; Forrest, Steve; Witharana, Chandi; Hart, Tom; Lynch, Heather J. A global population assessment of the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica). Scientific Reports. 2020-11-10, 10 (1): 19474. Bibcode:2020NatSR..1019474S. PMC 7655846
. PMID 33173126. S2CID 226304009. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76479-3 (英语).
- ^ 3.0 3.1 Seavey, Jennifer R.; Gilmer, Ben; McGarigal, Kevin M. Effect of sea-level rise on piping plover (Charadrius melodus) breeding habitat. Biological Conservation. January 2011, 144 (1): 393–401 [2023-11-06]. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.09.017. (原始内容存档于2022-11-04) (英语).
- ^ 4.0 4.1 Saunders, Denis A.; Mawson, Peter; Dawson, Rick. The impact of two extreme weather events and other causes of death on Carnaby's Black Cockatoo: a promise of things to come for a threatened species?. Pacific Conservation Biology. 2011, 17 (2): 141–148 [2023-11-06]. ISSN 2204-4604. doi:10.1071/pc110141
. (原始内容存档于2022-01-21) (英语).
- ^ 5.0 5.1 Zhu, Bing-Run; Verhoeven, Mo A.; Velasco, Nicolas; Sanchez-Aguilar, Lisa; Zhang, Zhengwang; Piersma, Theunis. Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia. Global Change Biology. 2022-06-18, 28 (18): 5416–5426. PMC 9544271
. PMID 35716047. doi:10.1111/gcb.16308.
- ^ Bladon, Andrew J.; Donald, Paul F.; Collar, Nigel J.; Denge, Jarso; Dadacha, Galgalo; Wondafrash, Mengistu; Green, Rhys E. Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species. PLOS ONE. 2021-05-19, 16 (5): e0249633. Bibcode:2021PLoSO..1649633B. PMC 8133463
. PMID 34010302. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0249633
(英语).
- ^ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Senapathi, Deepa. Climate Change and Birds: Adaptation, Mitigation & Impacts on Avian Populations. A report on the BOU's Annual Conference held at the University of Leicester, 6–8 April 2010. Ibis. 2010, 152 (4): 869–872. ISSN 1474-919X. doi:10.1111/j.1474-919X.2010.01062.x
(英语).
- ^ 8.0 8.1 Horton, Kyle G.; Morris, Sara R.; Van Doren, Benjamin M.; Covino, Kristen M. Six decades of North American bird banding records reveal plasticity in migration phenology. Journal of Animal Ecology. 2023-01-19, 92 (3): 738–750. PMID 36655993. S2CID 255973200. doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13887
.
- ^ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Franks, Samantha E.; Pearce‐Higgins, James W.; Atkinson, Sian; Bell, James R.; Botham, Marc S.; Brereton, Tom M.; Harrington, Richard; Leech, David I. The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity. Global Change Biology. 2017-11-20, 24 (3): 957–971. ISSN 1354-1013. PMID 29152888. doi:10.1111/gcb.13960
.
- ^ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Kiat, Y.; Vortman, Y.; Sapir, N. Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years. Nature Communications. 2019-06-10, 10 (1): 2540. PMC 6557852
. PMID 31182713. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10452-1
.
- ^ 11.0 11.1 Kenn Kaufman. Climate Change Could Cause Shifts in Bird Ranges That Seem Unbelievable Today. Audubon. 2018-03-21 [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2023-11-28) (英语).
- ^ 12.0 12.1 Sovacool, B. K. The avian benefits of wind energy: A 2009 update. Renewable Energy. 2013, 49: 19–24. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.074.
- ^ IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆). In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆) [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- ^ Change in bird coloration due to climate change. ScienceDaily. [2022-08-04]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-04) (英语).
- ^ López-Idiáquez, David; Teplitsky, Céline; Grégoire, Arnaud; Fargevieille, Amélie; del Rey, María; de Franceschi, Christophe; Charmantier, Anne; Doutrelant, Claire. Long-Term Decrease in Coloration: A Consequence of Climate Change?. The American Naturalist. 2022-07-01, 200 (1): 32–47 [2023-11-06]. ISSN 0003-0147. PMID 35737990. S2CID 247102554. arXiv:2211.13673
. doi:10.1086/719655. (原始内容存档于2022-09-24).
- ^ Vlamis, Kelsey. Birds 'shrinking' as the climate warms. BBC News. 2019-12-04 [2019-12-05]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-27) (英国英语).
- ^ North American Birds Are Shrinking, Likely a Result of the Warming Climate. Audubon. 2019-12-04 [2019-12-05]. (原始内容存档于2019-12-05) (英语).
- ^ Weeks, Brian C.; Willard, David E.; Zimova, Marketa; Ellis, Aspen A.; Witynski, Max L.; Hennen, Mary; Winger, Benjamin M.; Norris, Ryan. Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds. Ecology Letters. 2019-12-04, 23 (2): 316–325. PMID 31800170. S2CID 208620935. doi:10.1111/ele.13434. hdl:2027.42/153188
.
- ^ Jirinec, Vitek; Burner, Ryan C.; Amaral, Bruna R.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Fernández-Arellano, Gilberto; Hernández-Palma, Angélica; Johnson, Erik I.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.; Powell, Luke L.; Rutt, Cameron L.; Wolfe, Jared D. Morphological consequences of climate change for resident birds in intact Amazonian rainforest. Science Advances. 2021, 7 (46): eabk1743. Bibcode:2021SciA....7.1743J. PMC 8589309
. PMID 34767440. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abk1743.
- ^ del Mar Delgado, Maria; Bettega, Chiara; Martens, Jochen; Päckert, Martin. Ecotypic changes of alpine birds to climate change. Scientific Reports. 2019-11-06, 9 (1): 16082. PMC 6834662
. PMID 31695069. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52483-0
.
- ^ 21.0 21.1 21.2 Brainy birds may fare better under climate change: Study is first to directly link cognitive power to a physical response to warming. ScienceDaily. [2023-04-02]. (原始内容存档于2023-03-25) (英语).
- ^ 22.0 22.1 Brainy birds may fare better under climate change: Study is first to directly link cognitive power to a physical response to warming. ScienceDaily. 21 March 2023 [2023-03-23]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-05) (英语).
- ^ 23.0 23.1 Saalfeld, Sarah T.; Hill, Brooke L.; Hunter, Christine M.; Frost, Charles J.; Lanctot, Richard B. Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting. Scientific Reports. 2021-07-27, 11 (1): 15277. PMC 8316457
. PMID 34315998. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-94788-z
.
- ^ Shipley, J. Ryan; Twining, Cornelia W.; Mathieu-Resuge, Margaux; Parmar, Tarn Preet; Kainz, Martin; Martin-Creuzburg, Dominik; Weber, Christine; Winkler, David W.; Graham, Catherine H.; Matthews, Blake. Climate change shifts the timing of nutritional flux from aquatic insects. Current Biology. February 2022, 32 (6): 1342–1349.e3 [2023-11-06]. PMID 35172126. S2CID 246830106. doi:10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.057. (原始内容存档于2023-04-19) (英语).
- ^ Samplonius, Jelmer M.; Kappers, Elena F.; Brands, Stef; Both, Christiaan. Phenological mismatch and ontogenetic diet shifts interactively affect offspring condition in a passerine. Journal of Animal Ecology. 2016-06-23, 85 (5): 1255–1264. ISSN 0021-8790. PMID 27263989. doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12554
.
- ^ Helen Briggs. Climate change link to puffin deaths. BBC News. 30 May 2019 [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2023-11-23) (英语).
- ^ Fraser, Kevin C.; Shave, Amanda; de Greef, Evelien; Siegrist, Joseph; Garroway, Colin J. Individual Variability in Migration Timing Can Explain Long-Term, Population-Level Advances in a Songbird. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 2019-09-06, 7. ISSN 2296-701X. doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00324
.
- ^ VAN BUSKIRK, JOSH; MULVIHILL, ROBERT S.; LEBERMAN, ROBERT C. Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change. Global Change Biology. March 2009, 15 (3): 760–771. Bibcode:2009GCBio..15..760V. ISSN 1354-1013. S2CID 84920348. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01751.x.
- ^ Charmantier, Anne; Gienapp, Phillip. Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes. Evolutionary Applications. 2013-11-12, 7 (1): 15–28. ISSN 1752-4571. PMC 3894895
. PMID 24454545. doi:10.1111/eva.12126
.
- ^ Visser, Marcel E.; Holleman, Leonard J. M.; Gienapp, Phillip. Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird. Oecologia. February 2006, 147 (1): 164–172. Bibcode:2006Oecol.147..164V. ISSN 0029-8549. PMID 16328547. S2CID 27648066. doi:10.1007/s00442-005-0299-6.
- ^ Kaliński, Adam; Bańbura, Mirosława; Glądalski, Michał; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy. Physiological condition of nestling great tits (Parus major) declines with the date of brood initiation: a long term study of first clutches. Scientific Reports. 2019-07-08, 9 (1): 9843. Bibcode:2019NatSR...9.9843K. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 6614424
. PMID 31285462. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46263-z
.
- ^ Cole, Ella F.; Regan, Charlotte E.; Sheldon, Ben C. Spatial variation in avian phenological response to climate change linked to tree health. Nature Climate Change. 2021-09-27, 11 (10): 872–878 [2023-11-06]. S2CID 237947627. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01140-4. (原始内容存档于2023-11-03).
- ^ Visser, Marcel E.; Lindner, Melanie; Gienapp, Phillip; Lonng, Matthew C.; Jenouvrier, Stephanie. Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major). Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 2021-11-24, 147 (1): 164–172. PMC 8611334
. PMID 34814747. doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.1337.
- ^ Marcelino, J.; Silva, J. P.; Gameiro, J.; Silva, A.; Rego, F. C.; Moreira, F.; Catry, I. Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change. Scientific Reports. 2020-04-29, 10 (1): 7207. PMC 7190627
. PMID 32350294. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-64087-0
(英语).
- ^ Jones, Matthew; Smith, Adam; Betts, Richard; Canadell, Josep; Prentice, Collin; Le Quéré, Corrine. Climate Change Increases the Risk of Wildfires. ScienceBrief. [2022-02-16]. (原始内容存档于2024-01-26).
- ^ Dunne, Daisy. Explainer: How climate change is affecting wildfires around the world. Carbon Brief. 2020-07-14 [2022-02-17]. (原始内容存档于2023-12-19).
- ^ Ed Yong. The Bleak Future of Australian Wildlife. The Atlantic. 2020-01-14 [2020-02-08]. (原始内容存档于2020-01-16).
- ^ Kevin Johnson. The Southwest Is Facing an 'Unprecedented' Migratory Bird Die-Off. Audubon. 2020-09-16 [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2023-12-01) (英语).
- ^ Joshua Rapp Learn. Mass Bird Die-Off Linked to Wildfires and Toxic Gases. EOS. 2021-03-26 [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2024-01-25) (英语).
- ^ Yang, Di; Yang, Anni; Yang, Jue; Xu, Rongting; Qiu, Han. Unprecedented Migratory Bird Die-Off: A Citizen-Based Analysis on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Mass Mortality Events in the Western United States. GeoHealth. 2021-03-08, 5 (4): e2021GH000395. PMC 8029984
. PMID 33855250. doi:10.1029/2021GH000395
(英语).
- ^ Convertino, Matteo; Bockelie, Adam; Kiker, Gregory A; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Linkov, Igor. Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change. Ecological Processes. 2012-10-30, 1 (1). ISSN 2192-1709. doi:10.1186/2192-1709-1-9
.
- ^ Zeigler, Sara L.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Fraser, James D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M. Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system. Ecosphere. 2017-01-11, 8 (1): e01653 [2023-11-06]. doi:10.1002/ecs2.1653. hdl:10919/89387
. (原始内容存档于2023-11-18) (英语).
- ^ Andes, Alicia K.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Ellis-Felege, Susan N. Plasticity of Least Tern and Piping Plover nesting behaviors in response to sand temperature. Journal of Thermal Biology. July 2020, 91: 102579. PMID 32716890. doi:10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102579
(英语).
- ^ Meghan Bartels. In a Hotter World, Desert Birds Will Face a Much Higher Risk of Dehydration. Audubon. 2017-02-13 [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2023-06-25) (英语).
- ^ Albright, Thomas P.; Mutiibwa, Denis; Gerson, Alexander. R.; Krabbe Smith, Eric; Talbot, William A.; O’Neill, Jacqueline J.; McKechnie, Andrew E.; Wolf, Blair O. Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration. PNAS. 2017-02-13, 114 (9): 2283–2288. PMC 5338552
. PMID 28193891. doi:10.1073/pnas.1613625114
.
- ^ 46.0 46.1 Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik. Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2012-01-07, 279 (1726): 144–152. PMC 3223649
. PMID 21613299. doi:10.1098/rspb.2011.0673.
- ^ McClure, Christopher J. W.; Rolek, Brian W.; McDonald, Kenneth; Hill, Geoffrey E. Climate change and the decline of a once common bird. Ecology and Evolution. 2012-01-16, 21 (12): 4342–4352. PMC 3298949
. PMID 22423330. S2CID 17474939. doi:10.1002/ece3.95 (英语).
- ^ Deomurari, Arpit; Sharma, Ajay; Ghose, Dipankar; Singh, Randeep. Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change. Diversity. 2023-03-10, 15 (3): 404. doi:10.3390/d15030404
.
- ^ Martin, Kathy; Wilson, Scott; MacDonald, Elizabeth C.; Camfield, Alaine F.; Martin, Michaela; Trefry, Sarah A. Effects of severe weather on reproduction for sympatric songbirds in an alpine environment: Interactions of climate extremes influence nesting success. The Auk. 2017-07-01, 134 (3): 696–709. ISSN 1938-4254. S2CID 89912283. doi:10.1642/AUK-16-271.1
.
- ^ Li, Jin; Hilbert, David W.; Parker, Trevor; Williams, Stephen. How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey-headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis). Global Change Biology. 2009-01-08, 15 (1): 255–267 [2023-11-06]. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01737.x. (原始内容存档于2023-12-08) (英语).
- ^ Forester, Brenna R; Day, Casey C; Ruegg, Kristen; Landguth, Erin L. Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher. Journal of Heredity. 2023-02-04, 21 (12): 4342–4352. PMC 10287148
. PMID 36738446. doi:10.1093/jhered/esac067
(英语).
- ^ Meireles, Ricardo C.; Lopes, Leonardo E.; Brito, Gustavo R.; Solar, Ricardo. The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: A path to extinction?. Ecology and Evolution. 2023-02-14, 13 (2): e9802. PMC 9926175
. PMID 36818528. doi:10.1002/ece3.9802 (英语).
- ^ Cunningham, S. J.; Madden, C. F.; Barnard, P.; Amar, A. Electric crows: powerlines, climate change and the emergence of a native invader. Diversity and Distributions. 2016, 22 (1): 17–29. ISSN 1472-4642. doi:10.1111/ddi.12381
(英语).
- ^ Meireles, Ricardo C.; Lopes, Leonardo E.; Brito, Gustavo R.; Solar, Ricardo. The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: A path to extinction?. Ecology and Evolution. 2023-02-14, 13 (2): e9802. PMC 9926175
. PMID 36818528. doi:10.1002/ece3.9802 (英语).
- ^ Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Primack, Richard B.; Wormworth, Janice. The effects of climate change on tropical birds. Biological Conservation. April 2012, 148 (1): 1–18. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.019.
- ^ Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M. Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals. PLOS ONE. 2013-06-21, 8 (6): e65427. Bibcode:2013PLoSO...865427F. PMC 3680427
. PMID 23950785. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065427
(英语).
- ^ Liu, Xiaoping; Guo, Renyun; Xu, Xiaocong; Shi, Qian; Li, Xia; Yu, Haipeng; Ren, Yu; Huang, Jianping. Future Increase in Aridity Drives Abrupt Biodiversity Loss Among Terrestrial Vertebrate Species. Earth's Future. April 3, 2023, 11 (4): e2022EF003162 [2023-09-22]. Bibcode:2023EaFut..1103162L. S2CID 257934225. doi:10.1029/2022EF003162. (原始内容存档于2023-09-22) (英语).
- ^ Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Samuel, Michael D. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?. Global Change Biology. 2015-06-25, 21 (12): 4342–4352 [2023-09-22]. Bibcode:2015GCBio..21.4342L. PMID 26111019. S2CID 21055807. doi:10.1111/gcb.13005. (原始内容存档于2023-01-24) (英语).
- ^ Bateman, Brooke L.; Taylor, Lotem; Wilsey, Chad; Wu, Joanna; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Langham, Gary. North American birds require mitigation and adaptation to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Conservation Science and Practice. 2020-07-02, 2 (8): e242. doi:10.1111/csp2.242.
- ^ Bateman, Brooke L.; Taylor, Lotem; Wilsey, Chad; Wu, Joanna; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Langham, Gary. Risk to North American birds from climate change-related threats. Conservation Science and Practice. 2020-07-02, 2 (8): e243. S2CID 225387919. doi:10.1111/csp2.243.
- ^ Survival By Degrees: About the Study. Audubon. [2023-06-25]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-21) (英语).
- ^ Warren, R.; Price, J.; VanDerWal, J.; Cornelius, S.; Sohl, H. The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas. Climatic Change. 2018-03-14, 147 (3–4): 395–409 [2023-09-22]. Bibcode:2018ClCh..147..395W. S2CID 158490978. doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6. (原始内容存档于2023-07-28) (英语).
- ^ Conradie, Shannon R.; Woodborne, Stephan M.; Cunningham, Susan J.; McKechnie, Andrew E. Chronic, sublethal effects of high temperatures will cause severe declines in southern African arid-zone birds during the 21st century. PNAS. 2019-06-24, 116 (28): 14065–14070. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11614065C. PMC 6628835
. PMID 31235571. doi:10.1073/pnas.1821312116
(英语).
- ^ Pattinson, Nicholas B.; van de Ven, Tanja M. F. N.; Finnie, Mike J.; Nupen, Lisa J.; McKechnie, Andrew E.; Cunningham, Susan J. Collapse of Breeding Success in Desert-Dwelling Hornbills Evident Within a Single Decade. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 2022-05-19, 10. doi:10.3389/fevo.2022.842264
(英语).
- ^ Kitanovska, Simona. Colorful Bird Famously Featured in 'The Lion King' Nearly Going Extinct. Newsweek. 2022-05-19 [2023-01-23]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-20).
- ^ Bladon, Andrew J.; Donald, Paul F.; Collar, Nigel J.; Denge, Jarso; Dadacha, Galgalo; Wondafrash, Mengistu; Green, Rhys E. Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species. PLOS ONE. 2021-05-19, 16 (5): e0249633. Bibcode:2021PLoSO..1649633B. PMC 8133463
. PMID 34010302. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0249633
(英语).
- ^ Le Bohec, C.; Durant, J. M.; Gauthier-Clerc, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Park, Y.-H.; Pradel, R.; Gremillet, D.; Gendner, J.-P.; Le Maho, Y. King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2008-02-11, 105 (7): 2493–2497. Bibcode:2008PNAS..105.2493L. PMC 2268164
. PMID 18268328. doi:10.1073/pnas.0712031105
.
- ^ Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Maho, Yvon Le; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano. Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem. Nature Climate Change. 2018-02-26, 8 (3): 245–251 [2023-09-22]. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..245C. S2CID 53793443. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0084-2. (原始内容存档于2023-06-25) (英语).
- ^ Antarctica's king penguins 'could disappear' by the end of the century. the Guardian. 2018-02-26 [2022-05-18]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-04) (英语).
- ^ Penguins suffering from climate change, scientists say. The Guardian. 2014-01-30 [2014-01-30]. (原始内容存档于2023-05-16).
- ^ 71.0 71.1 Fountain, Henry. For Already Vulnerable Penguins, Study Finds Climate Change Is Another Danger. The New York Times. 2014-01-29 [2014-01-30]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-27).
- ^ Strycker, Noah; Wethington, Michael; Borowicz, Alex; Forrest, Steve; Witharana, Chandi; Hart, Tom; Lynch, Heather J. A global population assessment of the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica). Scientific Reports. 2020-11-10, 10: 19474 [2023-09-22]. Bibcode:2020NatSR..1019474S. PMID 33173126. S2CID 226304009. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76479-3. (原始内容存档于2023-06-25) (英语).
- ^ Cimino MA, Lynch HJ, Saba VS, Oliver MJ. Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change. Scientific Reports. June 2016, 6: 28785. Bibcode:2016NatSR...628785C. PMC 4926113
. PMID 27352849. doi:10.1038/srep28785.
- ^ Wind Turbines. FWS. [2023-11-06]. (原始内容存档于2018-04-24) (英语).
- ^ Shepherd, Abby. Wind turbines and solar panels can hurt birds and bats. A Missouri group hopes to help. The Beacon. 2022-08-01 [2022-09-24]. (原始内容存档于2022-11-25) (美国英语).
- ^ Kumara, Honnavalli N.; Babu, S.; Babu Rao, G.; Mahato, Santanu; Bhattacharya, Malyasri; Ranga Rao, Nitin Venkatesh; Tamiliniyan, D.; Parengal, Harif; Deepak, D.; Balakrishnan, Athira L.; Bilaskar, Mahesh. Responses of birds and mammals to long-established wind farms in India. Scientific Reports. 2022-01-25, 12 (1): 1339. PMC 8789773
. PMID 35079039. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-05159-1.
- ^ Bai, Mei-Ling; Chih, Wen-Chieh; Lee, Pei-Fen; Lien, Yu-Yi. Response of waterbird abundance and flight behavior to a coastal wind farm on the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2021-03-11, 193 (4): 181 [2023-11-06]. PMID 33694006. S2CID 232173283. doi:10.1007/s10661-021-08985-4. (原始内容存档于2023-06-25).
|