地震預測
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地震預測(earthquake prediction)是預測一次地震發生的時間、地點和規模。地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間[1],然而對地下構造瞭解的進步,科學家能透過震災危害度評估,提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間,發生在某區域的機率,以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範。雖然部份證據表明,對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值,然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立,也無法重製,所以地震學家及地質學家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想。
爭議
[编辑]人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震,例如電磁場、天氣狀況、地震雲、土壤或地下水的氡氣或氫氣含量、井水水位及動物行為等。
地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性;一方面是因為資料不足,另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論。此外,只要做出大量預測,便容易碰巧言中。大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型;由於大地震鮮少發生,其地點與時間又相當集中,目前我們很難鑑定一次「成功」的預測是否只是僥倖而已。
2009年拉奎拉地震發生後,幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告,依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑,在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲,學者警告這恐造成寒蟬效應。[2] 厄爾斯特大學(University of Ulster)地震物理學教授史迪西(Sandy Steacy)認為:「若維持原判,這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應。」科學工作者關懷聯盟(UCS)學者郝普恩(Michael Halpern)認為:「這項決定荒謬又危險,美國官員應該非難它,義大利總統乔治奥·纳波利塔诺(Giorgio Napolitano)應該推翻这个决定。」英國地質調查所(BGS)的穆森(Roger Musson)說:「這6名科學家說的是正確的,任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法。他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑,這是錯的。」
預測方法
[编辑]電磁波異常
[编辑]實驗證明,岩石在破裂之前,會釋放出電磁波,然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問;部份研究則認為是岩石內的石英受到壓力時產生的壓電效應所造成;也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起。 [3]
Demeter微型衛星
[编辑]Demeter(希臘神話的女神得墨忒耳)為地震區電磁放射偵測(英文:"Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions")的縮寫。Demeter衛星由法國國家太空研究中心建造,目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係,並在2004年9月5日日本東海地方發生面波震级7.1地震前一週觀察到明顯的電離層活動及溫度變化[4]。
VAN方法
[编辑]VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位希臘學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法。此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號(英文:seismic electric signals),部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震,震央誤差在100公里以內、震度誤差在0.7個單位內、時間窗口為2小時至11天。這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察[5],此外也在日本激起一些科學上的興趣[6]。
水氡異常
[编辑]指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少。在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象,其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气,从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化。
地震活動型態的改變
[编辑]前震
[编辑]發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震,依照發生次序可分為前震 、主震和餘震,難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震。不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前,斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加,最著名的案例為1975年的海城地震。
動物行為
[编辑]根據民間傳說,一些動物能預知地震來臨,特別是貓、狗、雞、馬及其他小型動物;大型動物對此則較不敏感。[原創研究?]日本學者也曾對鯰魚的行為進行長期研究。[來源請求]
也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻電磁輻射信號。科羅拉多大學的學者證實石英岩斷裂時能藉壓電效應產生電磁活動。這類活動可於震前在斷層線上發生。根據最近的研究,電磁感應器能在統計學的意義上有效預測地震[7]
中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現,並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的海城地震;然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震。關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可;目前還無法證明動物能預知地震,即使動物能感知P波,但地震儀對此更敏感[8]。
案例
[编辑]中國
[编辑]中國地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件,例如地下水位、動物行為或前震等等。有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了遼寧省海城大地震[9]起,中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期、临震预报的地震共有28次[10][11]。包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震[12]、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8级地震[13][14]、1995年7月12日云南孟连7.3级地震[15]、1997年4月6日新疆伽师6.3级、6.4级地震[16]、2003年云南大姚7月21日6.2级地震、10月16日6.1级地震[17]、2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6.1级地震[18]等。
但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前虽有中长期趋势判断,但并无短期、临震预报。造成當次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重伤;2008年5月12日的汶川大地震,同样也无短震、临震预报,最终造成69,227到300,000人死亡,374,643人受伤,17,923人失踪。
美國
[编辑]2004年初,洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學由Vladimir Keilis-Borok帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震,機率是百分之五十。
到了2004年4月,加州地震預報評估委員會(CEPEC)向州政府報告「預測並不可靠,而且涉及的地域廣大(12,400平方哩),所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由。」[19]結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震。
義大利
[编辑]2009年拉奎拉地震發生前一個月,一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員,根據地面增加的放射性氡氣排放量,研判會有大地震發生。結果他被義大利民防單位指控危言聳聽,還被移送警方偵辦,罪名是製造民眾恐慌。而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時,官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議,大量接受媒體訪問,保證說不會發生地震。官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊,7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名、求處4年徒刑。
地震預警
[编辑]地震的预警监测比地震預測更可靠,其原理是偵測P波;P波在地殼中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的S波及雷利波,故可先期偵測。此法只能提早數秒(對於較深及較遠的大地震,或可達數十秒)预警。 現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard™ [20] 的系統能用這套技術自動應變,以減少人員及財產損失。
加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於《自然》的一篇論文中聲稱:在地震發生的前幾秒,可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小[21],它的結果還沒被其它學者認可。若然,則地震的早期預警將能更為有效。
參考文獻
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外部連結
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- 《自然》文章称地震不可预测 或影响日本地震预报政策(页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)
参见
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