人口過多：修订间差异
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==历史== |
==历史== |
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[[File:Overpopulation in Hồ Chí Minh City, Vietnam.JPG|thumb|275px|数以千计的踏板车骑过[[越南]][[胡志明市]]]] |
[[File:Overpopulation in Hồ Chí Minh City, Vietnam.JPG|thumb|275px|数以千计的踏板车骑过[[越南]][[胡志明市]]]] |
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人口过剩的顾虑由来已久。[[特土良]]是公元第二世纪[[迦太基]]城的居民，当时世界人口约为1.9亿人（仅今天的3–4%）。他发现：“我们最常见的观点（有时是抱怨）是人满为患。我们的数量是世界的累赘，难以供养.... 真的，瘟疫、饥荒、战争和地震是国家的救星，用以修剪人类的繁盛。”在此之前，[[柏拉图]]、[[亚里士多德]]和其他人也提出类似议题。<ref>Roberts, R.E. (1924). [http://www.tertullian.org/articles/roberts_theology/roberts_05.htm The Theology of Tertullian, Chapter 5 (pp. 79–119)] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303212931/http://www.tertullian.org/articles/roberts_theology/roberts_05.htm |date=3 March 2016 }}. Tertullian.org (2001-07-14). Retrieved on 2012-08-29.</ref> |
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历史上，虽然[[出生率]]高，人口增长通常因战争、[[鼠疫]]和其它疾病以及高[[婴儿死亡率]]而控制。在[[工业革命]]前的750年间，世界人口增长非常缓慢，维持在2.5亿以下。<ref>[[George Moffet]], ''Critical Masses: The Global Population Challenge'' (1994): "[the world's population remained] capped by birth rates and death rates locked in a seemingly permanent equilibrium."</ref> |
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在十九世纪之初，世界人口增到了10亿人，[[托马斯·罗伯特·马尔萨斯|托马斯·马尔萨斯]]等知识分子预测可利用资源会跟不上，因为土地有限，无法支持潜力无限的增长。<ref>{{cite book|title=An Essay on the Principle of Population|date=1798|publisher=J. Johnson,|location=London|chapter=VII, paragraph 10, lines 8–10|quote=The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race}}</ref>[[重商主义|重商主义者]]认为人口庞大是一笔财富，使得可能的市场更大、军队更多。 |
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在十九世纪，马尔萨斯的努力常常误解为指责穷人处境，误认为济贫从长远角度讲是帮倒忙。<ref name="Claeys">Gregory Claeys: The "Survival of the Fittest" and the Origins of Social Darwinism, in: Journal of the History of Ideas, Vol. 61, No. 2, 2002, p. 223–240</ref>这导致，如1834年的《英国济贫法》<ref>English poor laws of 1834</ref><ref name="Claeys"/>以及面对1845至52年间[[爱尔兰大饥荒]]时犹豫不决<ref>Cormac Ó Gráda: Famine. A Short History, Princeton University Press 2009, ISBN 978-0-691-12237-3 (pp. 20, 203–206)</ref> |
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联合国2004年人口评估报告预期世界人口会在2050年稳定下来，在2300年前会保持平稳。<ref>UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division. World Population to 2300. {{cite web|url=http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf |title=Archived copy |accessdate=2016-05-24 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20161202044347/http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf |archivedate=2 December 2016 |df=dmy }}</ref> 2014年，《[[科学 (期刊)|科学]]》发表的研究挑战了这一预期，认为人口会在下一世纪继续增长。<ref>{{cite web|author=Carrington, Damien|date= September 18, 2014|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/18/world-population-new-study-11bn-2100 |title=World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise|work=The Guardian|accessdate= December 19, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal | doi = 10.1126/science.1257469| pmid = 25301627| title = World population stabilization unlikely this century| journal = Science| volume = 346| issue = 6206| pages = 234–7| publisher = AAAS| date = September 18, 2014| url = | issn = 1095-9203| last1 = Gerland | first1 = P.| last2 = Raftery | first2 = A. E.| last3 = Ev Ikova | first3 = H.| last4 = Li | first4 = N.| last5 = Gu | first5 = D.| last6 = Spoorenberg | first6 = T.| last7 = Alkema | first7 = L.| last8 = Fosdick | first8 = B. K.| last9 = Chunn | first9 = J.| last10 = Lalic | first10 = N.| last11 = Bay | first11 = G.| last12 = Buettner | first12 = T.| last13 = Heilig | first13 = G. K.| last14 = Wilmoth | first14 = J.| accessdate = December 19, 2016 | pmc=4230924}}</ref>[[华盛顿大学]]统计学和社会学教授艾德里安· 拉夫特里<ref>Adrian Raftery</ref>及其中一位研究员称：“过去20年间的共识是目前世界人口约70亿左右，增至90亿后平稳或可能下降。我们发现本世纪人口不会平稳有七成可能性。人口似乎不再世界议题上，却依然极其重要。”<ref>[http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/09/18/world-population-to-keep-growing-this-century-hit-11-billion-by-2100/ World population to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161204155734/http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/09/18/world-population-to-keep-growing-this-century-hit-11-billion-by-2100/ |date=4 December 2016 }}. UWToday. September 18, 2014</ref>近期，联合国预测到2100年人口可能会增至150亿。<ref name="15billion"/> |
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==人口== |
==人口== |
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2017年4月11日 (二) 20:23的版本
 | 此條目目前正依照其他维基百科上的内容进行翻译。 (2017年4月11日) |
 | 此條目需要擴充。 (2014年6月15日) |
人口過多（又稱人口爆炸或人口過剩）是指在一定地理区域内人类数量的生态足迹超过了当地环境承载力。从长远角度来看，人口过剩也可被视为不可再生能源大幅耗尽或环境承载能力降低，无法支持人口数量。[1]
词汇人口过多讨论的是整个人类数量和环境之间的关系：地球[2]或较小的地理区域，如国家。人口过多可以由出生率增加、死亡率降低、移民涌入、生物群系不可持续或资源枯竭造成。如果某一贫瘠之地难以为生，虽然人数稀少但也可能会人口过多（如荒漠）。支持人口适度的说法常引述生活质量、环境承载力及饥荒风险来反驳持续高人口增长，支持人口下降。科学家认为人口过多、 过度消费和技术应用导致人类对自然环境产生重大影响，使得地球进入新的地质世，即人类世.[3][4][5]
纵览
在1350年前后的黑死病之后，世界人口就持续增长，[6]但显著增长还是在近50年，主要原因是医学进步和农业增产。人口增长率自二十世纪八十年代开始下降。联合国已经表示对撒哈拉以南非洲人口持续增长表示顾虑。[7]最近的研究显示这些顾虑是有根据的。[8]2017年4月11日，据美国人口调查局数据，世界人口约为74.97亿人[9]据联合国数据为70多亿人。[10][11][12]大多数当代估算假定地球现有承载能力在40亿到160亿之间。无论用那种估算，世界人口过多可能已经或还没有发生。无论怎样，近期人口激增造成一些顾虑。世界人口在2040到2050年间预期将会达到80到105亿。[13][14][15]2011年5月，联合国将中位数变量预期增加至2050年的93亿及2100年的101亿。[16]
前三个世纪人口激增让人们忧虑地球可能养不活现有或未来的居民。1994年，国际科学院组织[17]就人口增长声明指出许多环境问题，如大气二氧化碳增多、全球变暖和污染都因人口增加而恶化。[18]其它与人口过多的问题包括对资源需求的增加，如清洁水源和食物、饥荒和营养不良、消耗自然资源（如化石燃料）过快、居住环境破坏。富裕但人口稠密的地区，如大不列颠，不得不依赖进口食物为生。[19]这在世界大战期间变得严峻，虽然发起了“为胜利掘地”[20]的农垦运动和食物配给制，不列颠依然得为保障进口食物渠道安全而战斗。然而，许多人认为浪费和过度消耗，特别是富裕国家，将在人口过剩相对的环境方面施以重压。[21]
大多数国家没有直接的生育率控制政策，但生育率会因教授家庭规划、增加生育控制和避孕措施而下降。只有中国设立了独生子女政策。太空移民和其它技术解决方案的提出可能会在未来缓解人口过多问题。
历史
人口过剩的顾虑由来已久。特土良是公元第二世纪迦太基城的居民，当时世界人口约为1.9亿人（仅今天的3–4%）。他发现：“我们最常见的观点（有时是抱怨）是人满为患。我们的数量是世界的累赘，难以供养.... 真的，瘟疫、饥荒、战争和地震是国家的救星，用以修剪人类的繁盛。”在此之前，柏拉图、亚里士多德和其他人也提出类似议题。[22]
历史上，虽然出生率高，人口增长通常因战争、鼠疫和其它疾病以及高婴儿死亡率而控制。在工业革命前的750年间，世界人口增长非常缓慢，维持在2.5亿以下。[23]
在十九世纪之初，世界人口增到了10亿人，托马斯·马尔萨斯等知识分子预测可利用资源会跟不上，因为土地有限，无法支持潜力无限的增长。[24]重商主义者认为人口庞大是一笔财富，使得可能的市场更大、军队更多。
在十九世纪，马尔萨斯的努力常常误解为指责穷人处境，误认为济贫从长远角度讲是帮倒忙。[25]这导致，如1834年的《英国济贫法》[26][25]以及面对1845至52年间爱尔兰大饥荒时犹豫不决[27]
联合国2004年人口评估报告预期世界人口会在2050年稳定下来，在2300年前会保持平稳。[28] 2014年，《科学》发表的研究挑战了这一预期，认为人口会在下一世纪继续增长。[29][30]华盛顿大学统计学和社会学教授艾德里安· 拉夫特里[31]及其中一位研究员称：“过去20年间的共识是目前世界人口约70亿左右，增至90亿后平稳或可能下降。我们发现本世纪人口不会平稳有七成可能性。人口似乎不再世界议题上，却依然极其重要。”[32]近期，联合国预测到2100年人口可能会增至150亿。[33]
人口
增长历史
| 人口数量[7] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 年份 | 亿 | ||
| 1804 | 10 | ||
| 1927 | 20 | ||
| 1959 | 30 | ||
| 1974 | 40 | ||
| 1987 | 50 | ||
| 1999 | 60 | ||
| 2011 | 70 | ||
| 2020 | 77（约）[34] | ||
| 1990至2009年间人口增长（%）[35] | |
|---|---|
| 世界 | 28.4% |
| 非洲 | 58.4% |
| 中东 | 53.4% |
| 亚洲（非中国） | 36.9% |
| 拉丁美洲 | 32.0% |
| 北美经合组织 | 25.1% |
| 中国 | 17.3% |
| 欧洲经合组织 | 9.9% |
| 太平洋经合组织 | 9.5% |
| 欧洲和欧亚大陆非经合组织 | -2.7% |
| 大陆 | 1900年人口[36] |
|---|---|
| 非洲 | 1.33亿 |
| 亚洲 | 9.04亿 |
| 欧洲 | 4.08亿 |
| 拉美和加勒比 | 7400万 |
| 北美州 | 8200万 |
预期
| 大陆 | 2050年人口预期[37] |
|---|---|
| 非洲 | 18亿 |
| 亚洲 | 53亿 |
| 欧洲 | 6.28亿 |
| 拉美和加勒比 | 8.09亿 |
| 北美洲 | 3.92亿 |
城市增长
原因
极端
1950至2012年间，保加利亚人口增长率只有0.5%，而阿拉伯联合酋长国翻了一百番（79,050到850万）。[38]自1950年来，基本上有一半国家人口增长了四倍。[38]
人口转变
- 欧洲 – 2.66至1.41
- 北美洲 – 3.47至1.99
- 大洋洲 – 3.87至2.30
- 中美洲 – 6.38至2.66
- 南美洲 – 5.75至2.49
- 亚洲（非中东） – 5.85至2.43
- 中东和北非 – 6.99至3.37
- 非洲撒哈拉以南 – 6.7至5.53
承载能力
资源
食物
展望全球
土地
化石燃料
贫富
环境
建议
管控
图示
其它
注释
- ^ Ehrlich, Paul R. Ehrlich & Anne H. The population explosion. London: Hutchinson. 1990: 39–40 [20 July 2014]. ISBN 0091745519.
When is an area overpopulated? When its population can not be maintained without rapidly depleting nonrenewable resources [39] (or converting renewable resources into nonrenewable ones) and without decreasing the capacity of the environment to support the population. In short, if the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly being degraded by its current human occupants, that area is overpopulated.
- ^ "Global food crisis looms as climate change and population growth strip fertile land 互联网档案馆的存檔，存档日期29 April 2016.". Guardian.co.uk (2007-08-31).
- ^ Coping with the Anthropocene. Phys.org. March 17, 2015 [January 23, 2017].
- ^ Vaughan, Adam. Human impact has pushed Earth into the Anthropocene, scientists say. The Guardian. January 7, 2016 [January 23, 2017].
- ^ Dimick, Dennis. As World’s Population Booms, Will Its Resources Be Enough for Us?. National Geographic. September 21, 2014 [January 23, 2017].
- ^ Archived copy. [2008-11-03]. （原始内容存档于20 December 2016）. 已忽略未知参数
|df=(帮助) - ^ 7.0 7.1 BBC News – Population seven billion: UN sets out challenges. BBC. 2013-05-22 [2011-11-30].
- ^ Zinkina J., Korotayev A. Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts (Emerging Risks and Way Out). World Futures 70/2 (2014): 120–139 互联网档案馆的存檔，存档日期23 August 2016..
- ^ U.S. and World Population Clock. [2016-03-05].
- ^ Population seven billion: UN sets out challenges. BBC. 2011-10-26 [2011-10-27].
- ^ Coleman, Jasmine. World's 'seven billionth baby' is born. The Guardian (London). 2011-10-31 [2011-10-31].
- ^ 7 billion people is a 'serious challenge'. http://www.upi.com/.
- ^ World Population Clock – Worldometers. Worldometers.info. [1 August 2010].
- ^ International Data Base (IDB) – World Population. Census.gov. 2010-06-28 [1 August 2010].
- ^ World Population Prospects:The 2008 Revision (PDF). Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. June 2009.
- ^ World Population Prospects:The 2010 Revision Press Release (PDF). Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. May 2011.
- ^ InterAcademy Panel
- ^ joint statement by fifty-eight of the world's scientific academies. （原始内容存档于10 February 2010）.
- ^ WRIGHT, OLIVER. Britain's food self-sufficiency at risk from reliance on overseas imports of fruit and vegetables that could be produced at home. http://www.independent.co.uk. [11 July 2014]. 外部链接存在于
|website=(帮助) - ^ dig for victory
- ^ Fred Pearce. Consumption Dwarfs Population as Main Environmental Threat. Yale University. 2009-04-13 [2012-11-12].
- ^ Roberts, R.E. (1924). The Theology of Tertullian, Chapter 5 (pp. 79–119) 互联网档案馆的存檔，存档日期3 March 2016.. Tertullian.org (2001-07-14). Retrieved on 2012-08-29.
- ^ George Moffet, Critical Masses: The Global Population Challenge (1994): "[the world's population remained] capped by birth rates and death rates locked in a seemingly permanent equilibrium."
- ^ VII, paragraph 10, lines 8–10. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: J. Johnson,. 1798.
The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race
- ^ 25.0 25.1 Gregory Claeys: The "Survival of the Fittest" and the Origins of Social Darwinism, in: Journal of the History of Ideas, Vol. 61, No. 2, 2002, p. 223–240
- ^ English poor laws of 1834
- ^ Cormac Ó Gráda: Famine. A Short History, Princeton University Press 2009, ISBN 978-0-691-12237-3 (pp. 20, 203–206)
- ^ UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division. World Population to 2300. Archived copy (PDF). [2016-05-24]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2 December 2016）. 已忽略未知参数
|df=(帮助) - ^ Carrington, Damien. World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise. The Guardian. September 18, 2014 [December 19, 2016].
- ^ Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.; Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science (AAAS). September 18, 2014, 346 (6206): 234–7 [December 19, 2016]. ISSN 1095-9203. PMC 4230924
. PMID 25301627. doi:10.1126/science.1257469.
- ^ Adrian Raftery
- ^ World population to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100 互联网档案馆的存檔，存档日期4 December 2016.. UWToday. September 18, 2014
- ^ 引用错误：没有为名为
15billion的参考文献提供内容 - ^ Current World Population. Worldometers. [2014-04-18].
- ^ CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION I E A S T A T I S T I C S International Energy Agency H I G H L I G H T S (PDF). http://www.iea.org. 外部链接存在于
|website=(帮助) - ^ "Transitions in World Population" (PDF). Population Reference Bureau (PRB).
- ^ UN report – 2004 data (PDF). （原始内容 (PDF)存档于1 January 2016）. 已忽略未知参数
|df=(帮助) - ^ 38.0 38.1 International Programs – Region Summary – U.S. Census Bureau. Census.gov. [2013-09-22].
- ^ Field Listing: Total Fertility Rate. The World Factbook. [2016-04-24].
- ^ Country Comparison: GDP – Per Capita (PPP). The World Factbook. [2016-04-24].
參見
- List of population concern organizations (en.wikipedia)
- 表格出处：《帕尔格雷夫世界历史统计：欧洲卷1750-1993》，经济科学出版社2002年版。ISBN: 9787505829145
- Virginia Abernethy, Population Politics, (1993)
- Michael E. Arth, Democracy and the Common Wealth: Breaking the Stranglehold of the Special Interests, (2010), Chapter 35: "Overpopulation"
- Albert Allen Bartlett, Arithmetic, Population, and Energy: The Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis, (1978)
- Mathew Burrows, The Future Declassified: Megatrends that Will Undo the World unless We Take Action (2014)
- Joel E. Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? (1996)
- Barry Commoner, Making Peace with the Planet (1990)
- Eileen Crist and Philip Cafaro (eds). Life on the Brink: Environmentalists Confront Overpopulation. University of Georgia Press, 2012. ISBN 978-0820343853
- Herman Daly, Ecological Economics and the Ecology of Economics (1999)
- Paul R. Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, (1968) The Population Explosion, (1990) The Population Bomb, (1995) reprint
- Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 9 January 2013, 280 (1754). doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845. Comment by Prof. Michael Kelly, disagreeing with the paper by Ehrlich and Ehrlich; and response by the authors
- Stephen Emmott, Ten Billion (2013)
- Suzanne Goldenberg (24 September 2015). Pope's climate push is 'raving nonsense' without population control, says top US scientist, The Guardian
- Fred Guterl, The Fate of the Species: Why the Human Race May Cause Its Own Extinction and How We Can Stop It (2012),
- Allen Hammond, Which World? Global Destinies, Regional Choices (1998)
- Garrett Hardin, Living Within Limits, (1995) reprint
- Steven LeBlanc, Constant battles: the myth of the peaceful, noble savage, (2003) ISBN 0-312-31089-7
- Stanisław Lem (1971), The Futurological Congress
- Pentti Linkola, Can Life Prevail? (2011) ISBN 1907166637
- James Lovelock, The Vanishing Face of Gaia (2009), A Rough Ride to the Future (2015)
- F. L. Lucas, The Greatest Problem (1960).
- Andrew Mason, Population change and economic development in East Asia: Challenges met, opportunities seized (2001)
- Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis Meadows, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (Paperback) (2004)
- Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population, (1798)
- William G. Moseley (July 2007). "A population remedy is right here at home: U.S. overconsumption is a bigger issue than fertility." The Philadelphia Inquirer (article freely available online).
- J.R. McNeill, Peter Engelke, The Great Acceleration: An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945 (2016)
- Safa Motesharrei, et al. A Minimal Model for Human and Nature Interaction. University of Maryland, (2012).
- Dmitry Orlov, The Five Stages of Collapse: A Survivors' Toolkit (2013)
- Godfrey Reggio (1982). Koyaanisqatsi: Life out of Balance
- Karen Shragg, Move Upstream: A Call to Solve Overpopulation (November 2015). ISBN 978-0988493834. Part 1 of an interview with the author, and part 2 (August 2016)
- Julian Lincoln Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, (1998)"
- Scientific American Editors, Lights Out: How It All Ends (2012)
- Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (1989) ??? Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future, (2005)
- Alan Weisman. Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth? Little, Brown and Company, (2013) ISBN 0316097756
- The Environmental Politics of Population and Overpopulation. University of California, Berkeley.
- CK-12 Agriculture and human population growth
外部链接
查看维基词典中的词条「overpopulation」。
- What's your number?, by Population Action International
- What's your number?, by the BBC
- Global Population Boom: Are People the Problem, the Solution, or Both? (October 2012), lecture by Joel E. Cohen (43-min video). The same video on YouTube
- Overpopulation, overconsumption – in pictures (April 2015), The Guardian
- Why we should have fewer children: to save the planet (September 2016), The Guardian
- Human population through time (November 2016), American Museum of Natural History. Video (6:24 minutes) shows exponential growth of population. "It took 200,000 years for our human population to reach 1 billion — and only 200 years to reach 7 billion."
- YAN Kun(2011). The tendency equation of the population and its limit value in the United Kingdom (Brief annotation of the connection equation(R), p3-p5), Xi'an: Xi'an Modern Nonlinear Science Applying Institute.
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