决策论

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决策论是一个交叉学科,和数学统计经济学哲学管理心理学相关。它主要研究实际决策者如何进行决策,以及如何达到最优决策。

规范性和描述性决策理论[编辑]

哪些决策需要决策论[编辑]

在不可比的商品之间决策[编辑]

不确定性下的决策[编辑]

跨时间段决策[编辑]

社会选择(社会性决策)[编辑]

符合决策[编辑]

决策的悖论[编辑]

统计中的决策论[编辑]

一些统计工具对于决策过程中的信息收集,风险估计是非常有帮助的。人们可以计算第一类错误第二类错误发生的概率,从而正确的评估风险损失,做出更好的理性选择。

下面这个例子说明了在审判过程中的决策过程:

  实际情况
有罪 无罪
判决 有罪 正确 错误
 (冤枉好人) 
第一类错误
无罪 错误
 (放过嫌犯) 
第二类错误
正确

参见[编辑]

参考书目[编辑]

  • Robert Clemen. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition. Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996. (covers normative decision theory)
  • D.W. North. "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Trans. Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(3), 1968. Reprinted in Pearl & Shafer. (also about normative decision theory)
  • Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl, editors. Readings in uncertain reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990.
  • Howard Raiffa Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. 1997. ISBN 0-07-052579-X
  • Morris De Groot Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X.
  • Khemani , Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005.
  • J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. 1988. ISBN 0-412-27520-1
  • Akerlof, George A. and Janet L. YELLEN, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior
  • Arthur, W. Brian, Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality
  • James O. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Second Edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. ISBN 0-387-96098-8.
  • Goode, Erica. (2001) In Weird Math of Choices, 6 Choices Can Beat 600. The [[New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2005.

外部链接[编辑]