决策论
维基百科，自由的百科全书
决策论是一个交叉学科，和数学、统计、经济学、哲学、管理和心理学相关。它主要研究实际决策者如何进行决策，以及如何达到最优决策。
目录 |
规范性和描述性决策理论 [编辑]
哪些决策需要决策论 [编辑]
在不可比的商品之间决策 [编辑]
不确定性下的决策 [编辑]
跨时间段决策 [编辑]
社会选择（社会性决策） [编辑]
符合决策 [编辑]
决策的悖论 [编辑]
统计中的决策论 [编辑]
一些统计工具对于决策过程中的信息收集，风险估计是非常有帮助的。人们可以计算第一类错误和第二类错误发生的概率，从而正确的评估风险损失，做出更好的理性选择。
下面这个例子说明了在审判过程中的决策过程：
| 实际情况 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 有罪 | 无罪 | ||
| 判决 | 有罪 | 正确 | 错误 (冤枉好人) 第一类错误 |
| 无罪 | 错误 (放过嫌犯) 第二类错误 |
正确 | |
参见 [编辑]
参考书目 [编辑]
- Robert Clemen. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition. Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996. (covers normative decision theory)
- D.W. North. "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Trans. Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(3), 1968. Reprinted in Pearl & Shafer. (also about normative decision theory)
- Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl, editors. Readings in uncertain reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990.
- Howard Raiffa Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. 1997. ISBN 0-07-052579-X
- Morris De Groot Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X.
- Khemani , Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005.
- J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. 1988. ISBN 0-412-27520-1
- Akerlof, George A. and Janet L. YELLEN, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior
- Arthur, W. Brian, Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality
- James O. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Second Edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. ISBN 0-387-96098-8.
- Goode, Erica. (2001) In Weird Math of Choices, 6 Choices Can Beat 600. The [[New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2005.
