^Another study has estimated that P.1 may be ≈7000100000000000000♠100%(50% CrI, 7001700000000000000♠70–7000140000000000000♠140%) more transmissible.[C]
^Preliminary results from a study in the Southern Region of Brazil found P.1 much more lethal for healthy young people. In groups without pre-existing conditions, the variant was found to be ≈7000490000000000000♠490%(7002220000000000000♠220–7000985000000000000♠985%) more lethal for men in the 20-39 age group, ≈7000465000000000000♠465%(7002190000000000000♠190–7001100300000000000♠1003%) more lethal for women in the 20-39 age group and ≈7000670000000000000♠670%(7002401000000000000♠401–7001108300000000000♠1083%) for women in the 40-59 age group.
^About 6999640000000000000♠64%(7001260000000000000♠26–7000113000000000000♠113%) more transmissible than the Alpha variant, so 1.64 × 1.82 ≈ 2.98.
^Lowe, Derek. The New Mutations. In the Pipeline. American Association for the Advancement of Science. 2020-12-22 [2020-12-23]. I should note here that there's another strain in South Africa that is bringing on similar concerns. This one has eight mutations in the Spike protein, with three of them (K417N, E484K and N501Y) that may have some functional role.
^ 21.021.121.221.3Lineage B.1.429cov-lineages.org, accessed 19 March 2021, Graphic shows B.1.429 detected in the USA, Mexico, Canada, the UK, France, Denmark, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Guadeloupe, and Aruba
^ 37.037.1Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Candido DS, Mishra S, 等. Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil. Science. 2021-05-21, 372 (6544): 815–821. ISSN 0036-8075. PMC 8139423. PMID 33853970. doi:10.1126/science.abh2644. Within this plausible region of parameter space, P.1 can be between 1.7 and 2.4 times more transmissible (50% BCI, 2.0 median, with a 99% posterior probability of being >1) than local non-P1 lineages and can evade 21 to 46% (50% BCI, 32% median, with a 95% posterior probability of being able to evade at least 10%) of protective immunity elicited by previous infection with non-P.1 lineages, corresponding to 54 to 79% (50% BCI, 68% median) cross-immunity ... We estimate that infections are 1.2 to 1.9 times more likely (50% BCI, median 1.5, 90% posterior probability of being >1) to result in mortality in the period after the emergence of P.1, compared with before, although posterior estimates of this relative risk are also correlated with inferred cross-immunity. More broadly, the recent epidemic in Manaus has strained the city’s health care system, leading to inadequate access to medical care. We therefore cannot determine whether the estimated increase in relative mortality risk is due to P.1 infection, stresses on the Manaus health care system, or both. Detailed clinical investigations of P.1 infections are needed.
^Freitas AR, Lemos DR, Beckedorff OA, Cavalcanti LP, Siqueira AM, Mello RC, 等. The increase in the risk of severity and fatality rate of covid-19 in southern Brazil after the emergence of the Variant of Concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 P.1 was greater among young adults without pre-existing risk conditions (Preprint). 2021-04-19. doi:10.1101/2021.04.13.21255281 –通过medRxiv. Female 20 to 39 years old, with no pre-existing risk conditions, were at risk of death 5.65 times higher in February (95% CI, 2.9-11.03; p <0.0001) and in the age group of 40 and 59 years old, this risk was 7.7 times higher (95% CI, 5.01-11.83; p <0.0001) comparing with November-December. ... The heterogeneity observed between the age groups was greater when we analyzed the subgroup of the population without preexisting risk conditions where we found that the CFR in the female sex in the second wave was 1.95 times (95% CI, 1.38-2.76) the CFR of the first wave in the population over 85 years old and was 7.7 times (95% CI, 5.01-11.83; p < 0.0001) in the population between 40 and 59 years old. In the male population without previous diseases, the CFR in the second wave was 2.18 (95% CI, 1.62-2.93) times the CFR of the first wave in the population over 85 years old and 5.9 (95% CI, 3.2-10.85; p < 0, 0001) higher in the range between 20 and 39 years old.
^Moustafa AM, Bianco C, Denu L, Ahmed A, Neide B, Everett J, 等. Comparative Analysis of Emerging B.1.1.7+E484K SARS-CoV-2 isolates from Pennsylvania. 2021-04-21.已忽略未知参数|biorxiv= (帮助)
^Yadav, PD; Sapkal, GN; Abraham, P; Ella, R; Deshpande, G; Patil, DY; Nyayanit, DA; Gupta, N; Sahay, RR; Shete, AM; Panda, S; Bhargava, B; Mohan, VK. Neutralization of variant under investigation B.1.617 with sera of BBV152 vaccinees.. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2021-05-07. PMID 33961693. doi:10.1093/cid/ciab411.